NFL Week 3 2026 Projections vs Results

The full Week 3 board, kept for the record: our projected passing, rushing, and receiving yards next to the final book line and what each player actually did.

Week 4 projections are live →

Archived. Projections for Week 3, kept for reference.

Projections updated September 28, 2026.

Passing yards

Player	Team	Projection	Book line	Actual
Dak Prescott	DAL	284	265.5	276
Jared Goff	DET	263	246	269
Matthew Stafford	LA	261	237	390
Drake Maye	NE	256	230.5	199
Carson Wentz	MIN	254	none posted	not recorded
Patrick Mahomes	KC	249	200.5	246
Brock Purdy	SF	244	237	297
Jacoby Brissett	ARI	243	225.5	280
Joe Burrow	CIN	238	300.5	282
Bo Nix	DEN	231	211.5	186
C.J. Stroud	HOU	229	149.5	167
Daniel Jones	IND	224.5	218.5	235
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	221	228.5	182
Jordan Love	GB	219	264.5	312
Aaron Rodgers	PIT	214	276	292
Lamar Jackson	BAL	210	239.5	186
Josh Allen	BUF	209	210.5	204
Tyler Shough	NO	205	253	255
Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	204	181	256
Geno Smith	NYJ	203	309.5	321
Jalen Hurts	PHI	201.5	215.5	153
Jameis Winston	NYG	199	200.5	118
Justin Herbert	LAC	198	206	226
Baker Mayfield	TB	187	215.5	217
Cam Ward	TEN	184	148.5	181
Bryce Young	CAR	167	249.5	291
Marcus Mariota	WAS	160	186.5	183
Drew Lock	SEA	158	none posted	not recorded
Kirk Cousins	LV	155	211.5	248
Deshaun Watson	CLE	153	126	144
Tyson Bagent	CHI	135	175.5	not recorded
Malik Willis	MIA	119	233.5	210

Rushing yards

Player	Team	Projection	Book line	Actual
Bijan Robinson	ATL	97	131.5	194
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	84	109.5	99
Kenneth Walker III	KC	83	81.5	70
Derrick Henry	BAL	83	91.5	89
James Cook	BUF	77	120.5	154
Jonathan Taylor	IND	72	70	68
D'Andre Swift	CHI	72	62	84
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	69	67	70
Saquon Barkley	PHI	66	72.5	82
Tony Pollard	TEN	65	68.5	74
Bucky Irving	TB	62	57	46
Chase Brown	CIN	59	73.5	61
Jaylen Warren	PIT	57	94.5	127
Omarion Hampton	LAC	55	55.5	56
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	54	59.5	82
Christian McCaffrey	SF	52	57.5	75
Jadarian Price	SEA	50	21.5	15
Ashton Jeanty	LV	50	68.5	56
Kimani Vidal	LAC	45	none posted	6
Javonte Williams	DAL	45	55.5	98
Cam Skattebo	NYG	42	64.5	60
J.K. Dobbins	DEN	42	50.5	49
TreVeyon Henderson	NE	41	41.5	23
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	41	none posted	3
Aaron Jones	MIN	41	52.5	58
Kyle Monangai	CHI	41	39	31
Justin Fields	KC	40	none posted	not recorded
Kyren Williams	LA	40	53	88
David Montgomery	HOU	39	36.5	33
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	37	76.5	73
Emanuel Wilson	SEA	33	19.5	14
Travis Etienne	NO	33	39.5	57
Blake Corum	LA	33	46.5	15
Jeremiyah Love	ARI	31	40.5	90
Josh Allen	BUF	30	17.5	22
Brian Robinson	ATL	29	33.5	50
Justin Herbert	LAC	29	15.5	17
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	29	42.5	36
Kaelon Black	SF	29	32.5	17
Kyler Murray	MIN	28	20.5	17
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	26	34.5	22
Tyler Allgeier	ARI	26	32.5	-1
Emmett Johnson	KC	25	14.5	17
Malik Willis	MIA	25	50.5	56
Lamar Jackson	BAL	24	39.5	50
Jalen Hurts	PHI	24	24.5	25
Marcus Mariota	WAS	23	2.5	11
DeeJay Dallas	MIN	23	none posted	2
Kendre Miller	NO	23	none posted	14
Tank Bigsby	PHI	23	12.5	0
MarShawn Lloyd	GB	22	30.5	11
Woody Marks	HOU	22	0.5	15
Alvin Kamara	NO	22	24.5	36
Drake Maye	NE	20	26.5	18
Tyjae Spears	TEN	20	18.5	5
Kaleb Johnson	GB	19	21.5	6
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX	16	20.5	37
Kenny Gainwell	TB	16	18.5	-4
RJ Harvey	DEN	16	20	6
Braelon Allen	NYJ	15	17.5	14
Najee Harris	NYG	14	52.5	52
Rachaad White	WAS	14	15.5	35
Mike Washington Jr.	LV	14	15.5	54
Keaton Mitchell	LAC	13	53	52
Samaje Perine	CIN	12	14.5	9
Justice Hill	BAL	12	13.5	33
AJ Dillon	CAR	11	16.5	16
Sione Vaki	DET	10	26.5	26
Chris Brooks	GB	8	9.5	0
Ollie Gordon II	MIA	7	9	41
Raheim Sanders	CLE	6	17.5	17

Receiving yards

Player	Team	Projection	Book line	Actual
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	114	81.5	128
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	91	82.5	98
Justin Jefferson	MIN	81	73.5	32
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	77.5	81.5	112
George Pickens	DAL	75	64	82
Matthew Golden	GB	74	84.5	100
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	73	19.5	19
DK Metcalf	PIT	73	23.5	31
Parker Washington	JAX	69	66.5	40
Trey McBride	ARI	64	68.5	75
Drake London	ATL	63	50.5	194
Jameson Williams	DET	58	49.5	49
Tee Higgins	CIN	57	91.5	90
DeVonta Smith	PHI	57	71.5	65
Bijan Robinson	ATL	56	45.5	19
Michael Wilson	ARI	55	45.5	89
George Kittle	SF	54	47	82
Jordan Addison	MIN	53	36.5	90
Jaylen Waddle	DEN	53	59.5	10
Hunter Henry	NE	52	41.5	5
Travis Kelce	KC	51	48.5	59
Chris Olave	NO	50	76.5	107
Romeo Doubs	NE	49	29.5	49
Rashee Rice	KC	49	73.5	88
Rashod Bateman	BAL	49	40	37
Christian Watson	GB	48	55.5	96
Sam LaPorta	DET	48	45	44
Malik Nabers	NYG	48	25.5	26
Tucker Kraft	GB	45	55.5	26
Mack Hollins	NE	45	87.5	87
Xavier Worthy	KC	45	38.5	20
Mike Evans	SF	45	54.5	34
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF	44	40.5	80
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	43	26.5	17
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	43	30.5	51
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	43	32.5	30
Brock Bowers	LV	43	46.5	116
Luther Burden III	CHI	43	36	61
Tyler Warren	IND	42	55.5	55
Emeka Egbuka	TB	42	49	62
Carnell Tate	TEN	41	52.5	58
T.J. Hockenson	MIN	41	30	11
Mark Andrews	BAL	41	43	24
Terrance Ferguson	LA	41	50.5	9
Rashid Shaheed	SEA	40	22.5	14
Kyle Pitts	ATL	39	31.5	5
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	39	38.5	38
Ladd McConkey	LAC	38	45	66
Dalton Schultz	HOU	38	16.5	30
Isaiah Likely	NYG	38	13.5	13
Denzel Boston	CLE	37	28.5	41
Christian McCaffrey	SF	37	39	41
Courtland Sutton	DEN	37	36.5	46
Colston Loveland	CHI	37	33	31
Malik Washington	MIA	36	63.5	56
Juwan Johnson	NO	36	35.5	53
Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	35	36.5	8
Terry McLaurin	WAS	35	65.5	77
DeMario Douglas	NE	34	29.5	38
Jakobi Meyers	JAX	34	34.5	64
Oronde Gadsden II	LAC	33	1.5	0
DJ Moore	BUF	33	51.5	67
Kayshon Boutte	HOU	33	0.5	21
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	33	36.5	57
Davante Adams	LA	33	71	137
Khalil Shakir	BUF	32	6.5	6
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	32	48.5	65
Josh Downs	IND	32	77.5	77
Chris Godwin Jr.	TB	31	35.5	25
Jake Ferguson	DAL	31	28.5	23
Michael Pittman	PIT	30	16.5	16
Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	30	32.5	40
Tre Tucker	LV	30	40.5	43
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	29	106.5	107
Jaylin Noel	HOU	29	17.5	17
Keenan Allen	IND	29	58.5	63
Brenton Strange	JAX	29	29.5	32
Stefon Diggs	WAS	29	20	33
Zay Flowers	BAL	29	47	84
Kenneth Walker III	KC	28	3.5	3
Ryan Flournoy	DAL	28	30	22
Quentin Johnston	LAC	27	42.5	40
Devaughn Vele	NO	27	48.5	39
Evan Engram	DEN	27	21.5	0
Dontayvion Wicks	PHI	27	42	32
Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	26	83.5	105
Mike Gesicki	CIN	26	24	37
Chase Brown	CIN	26	15	8
Cade Otton	TB	26	28	56
Theo Johnson	NYG	25	none posted	not recorded
Jaylen Warren	PIT	25	49.5	49
Cooper Kupp	SEA	25	42.5	46
AJ Barner	SEA	25	70.5	69
Troy Franklin	DEN	25	none posted	21
Keon Coleman	BUF	24	37.5	37
Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	24	34.5	51
Makai Lemon	PHI	24	28	29
Rome Odunze	CHI	24	25.5	44
KC Concepcion	CLE	23	9.5	9
Isaiah Williams	NYJ	23	21.5	21
Chimere Dike	TEN	23	none posted	3
Gunnar Helm	TEN	23	13.5	14
KaVontae Turpin	DAL	23	none posted	9
Roman Wilson	PIT	22	60.5	60
Colby Parkinson	LA	22	18.5	0
Tyquan Thornton	KC	21	22.5	22
Malachi Fields	NYG	21	19.5	19
Kendrick Bourne	ARI	21	23.5	22
Isaiah Bond	CLE	20	none posted	not recorded
Jonathan Taylor	IND	20	4.5	4
Kalif Raymond	CHI	19.5	23.5	90
Daniel Bellinger	TEN	19	none posted	16
Ted Hurst III	TB	19	24.5	40
Jalen Nailor	LV	19	24.5	16
Michael Mayer	LV	19	21	32
Kevin Austin Jr.	NO	19	none posted	not recorded
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	18	0.5	not recorded
Chris Bell	MIA	18	67.5	67
Tyjae Spears	TEN	18	13.5	0
Darren Waller	CAR	17	32.5	51
Tanner Hudson	CIN	17	none posted	13
Jauan Jennings	MIN	17	14.5	1
LaJohntay Wester	BAL	17	12.5	not recorded
Pat Bryant	DEN	17	26	44
Isaac TeSlaa	DET	16	66.5	66
Jared Wayne	HOU	16	15.5	20
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	16	14.5	16
Calvin Ridley	TEN	16	0.5	0
Aaron Jones	MIN	16	13	34
Tyler Higbee	LA	16	none posted	62
Saquon Barkley	PHI	16	12.5	-2
Jahan Dotson	ATL	15	12.5	11
Tre Harris	LAC	15	50.5	76
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	15	9.5	9
Darnell Mooney	NYG	15	20.5	20
Darnell Washington	PIT	15	20.5	67
Elijah Higgins	ARI	15	none posted	20
Jeremiyah Love	ARI	15	15.5	19
Javonte Williams	DAL	15	14.5	5
Ashton Jeanty	LV	15	22.5	37
Laquon Treadwell	IND	14	16.5	20
Kevin Coleman Jr.	MIA	14	0.5	3
Elic Ayomanor	TEN	14	0.5	11
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	13	10.5	17
Antonio Williams	WAS	13	15.5	15
Rachaad White	WAS	13	6.5	6
Bryce Lance	NO	13	15.5	0
RJ Harvey	DEN	13	18.5	41
Skyy Moore	GB	12	16.5	31
Kyle Juszczyk	SF	12	8.5	0
Josh Oliver	MIN	12	10.5	not recorded
Jalen McMillan	TB	12	13.5	0
Bucky Irving	TB	12	16.5	12
Jack Bech	LV	12	14.5	not recorded
Alvin Kamara	NO	12	12.5	5
Kyren Williams	LA	12	12.5	70
Woody Marks	HOU	11	8.5	6
TreVeyon Henderson	NE	11	9.5	6
Cam Skattebo	NYG	11	12	40
Derrick Henry	BAL	11	10.5	0
James Cook	BUF	10	0.5	0
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	10	28.5	28
David Montgomery	HOU	10	15.5	15
Emmett Johnson	KC	10	10.5	0
Jadarian Price	SEA	10	none posted	7
Noah Fant	NO	10	12	33
Cole Kmet	CHI	10	8.5	0
D'Andre Swift	CHI	10	13	4
MarShawn Lloyd	GB	9	10.5	7
Dawson Knox	BUF	9	5.5	5
Omarion Hampton	LAC	8	5.5	0
Tommy Tremble	CAR	8	26.5	41
Blake Whiteheart	CLE	8	0.5	not recorded
Jeremy Ruckert	NYJ	8	34.5	39
Dyami Brown	WAS	8	none posted	0
Justice Hill	BAL	8	14	0
Travis Etienne	NO	8	10	13
Adam Trautman	DEN	8	6.5	not recorded
Tony Pollard	TEN	7	7.5	22
Drew Sample	CIN	7	none posted	0
Erick All Jr.	CIN	7	none posted	not recorded
Tyler Allgeier	ARI	7	7.5	10
Kenny Gainwell	TB	7	9.5	14
Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	6	4.5	9
Samaje Perine	CIN	6	8.5	5
Elijah Arroyo	SEA	6	none posted	not recorded
Jonnu Smith	GB	5	5	16
Chris Brooks	GB	0	3.5	4
Raheim Sanders	CLE	0	34.5	34
Kyle Williams	NE	0	7.5	34
Chris Moore	BAL	0	16.5	4