Justin Herbert Props & Projections
QB · LAC · Week 4 vs SEA
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing yards | 219 | 153 - 287 | 199.5 | - |
| Rushing yards | 24 | 16 - 35 | 21.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 22.1% | probability | 15.4% | book implied |
We project Justin Herbert for 219 passing yards against SEA, above the 199.5 book line. The likely range runs 153 to 287; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
Common questions
- What is Justin Herbert's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give Justin Herbert a 22.1% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against SEA. The books price it near 15.4%.
- What is Justin Herbert's passing yards projection for Week 4?
- We project Justin Herbert for 219 passing yards (likely range 153 to 287), against a book line of 199.5.
- How often has Justin Herbert gone over the book line?
- Across the props we have tracked and graded, Justin Herbert has finished over the book line 3 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.