Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Props & Projections

WR · WAS · Week 4 vs IND

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards3821 - 5843.5-
Receptions32 - 54.5-
Anytime touchdown23.1%probability29.9%book implied

We project Stefon Diggs for 38 receiving yards against IND, below the 43.5 book line. The likely range runs 21 to 58; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3SEAReceiving yards292033over
Wk 3SEAReceptions334over
Wk 2DALReceiving yards424847under
Wk 2DALReceptions44.55over
Wk 1PHIReceiving yards3640.555over
Wk 1PHIReceptions33.5--

Common questions

What is Stefon Diggs's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give Stefon Diggs a 23.1% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against IND. The books price it near 29.9%.
What is Stefon Diggs's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project Stefon Diggs for 38 receiving yards (likely range 21 to 58), against a book line of 43.5.
How often has Stefon Diggs gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, Stefon Diggs has finished over the book line 4 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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