Aaron Jones Props & Projections
RB · MIN · Week 4 vs MIA
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 80 | 51 - 117 | 67.5 | over |
| Receiving yards | 17 | 9 - 28 | 19 | - |
| Receptions | 3 | 1 - 4 | 3.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 44.1% | probability | 62.3% | book implied |
We project Aaron Jones for 80 rushing yards against MIA, above the 67.5 book line. The likely range runs 51 to 117; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
| Week | Opp | Market | Projection | Book line | Actual | vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | TB | Rushing yards | 41 | 52.5 | 58 | over |
| Wk 3 | TB | Receiving yards | 16 | 13 | 34 | over |
| Wk 3 | TB | Receptions | 2 | 1.5 | 5 | over |
| Wk 2 | CHI | Rushing yards | 71 | 61.5 | 105 | over |
| Wk 2 | CHI | Receiving yards | 19 | 14.5 | 0 | under |
| Wk 2 | CHI | Receptions | 3 | 2.5 | - | - |
| Wk 1 | GB | Rushing yards | 25 | 29.5 | 40 | over |
| Wk 1 | GB | Receiving yards | 16 | 14.5 | 0 | under |
| Wk 1 | GB | Receptions | 2 | 2.5 | - | - |
Common questions
- What is Aaron Jones's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give Aaron Jones a 44.1% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against MIA. The books price it near 62.3%.
- What is Aaron Jones's rushing yards projection for Week 4?
- We project Aaron Jones for 80 rushing yards (likely range 51 to 117), against a book line of 67.5.
- How often has Aaron Jones gone over the book line?
- Across the props we have tracked and graded, Aaron Jones has finished over the book line 5 of 7 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.