Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson Props & Projections

WR · ARI · Week 4 vs NYG

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards5428 - 8557.5-
Receptions42 - 65.5-
Anytime touchdown31.9%probability32.8%book implied

We project Michael Wilson for 54 receiving yards against NYG, below the 57.5 book line. The likely range runs 28 to 85; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3SFReceiving yards5545.589over
Wk 3SFReceptions44.511over
Wk 2SEAReceiving yards343918under
Wk 2SEAReceptions33.52under
Wk 1LACReceiving yards3241.556over
Wk 1LACReceptions33.5--

Common questions

What is Michael Wilson's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give Michael Wilson a 31.9% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against NYG. The books price it near 32.8%.
What is Michael Wilson's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project Michael Wilson for 54 receiving yards (likely range 28 to 85), against a book line of 57.5.
How often has Michael Wilson gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, Michael Wilson has finished over the book line 3 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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