Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
Mike Gesicki

Mike Gesicki Props & Projections

TE · CIN · Week 4 vs JAX

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards2311 - 3828.5-
Receptions21 - 32.5-
Anytime touchdown19.6%probability25.3%book implied

We project Mike Gesicki for 23 receiving yards against JAX, below the 28.5 book line. The likely range runs 11 to 38; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3PITReceiving yards262437over
Wk 3PITReceptions22.53over
Wk 2HOUReceiving yards2025--
Wk 2HOUReceptions22.5--
Wk 1TBReceiving yards2720.578over
Wk 1TBReceptions22.5--

Common questions

What is Mike Gesicki's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give Mike Gesicki a 19.6% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against JAX. The books price it near 25.3%.
What is Mike Gesicki's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project Mike Gesicki for 23 receiving yards (likely range 11 to 38), against a book line of 28.5.
How often has Mike Gesicki gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, Mike Gesicki has finished over the book line 3 of 3 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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