Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
Gunnar Helm

Gunnar Helm Props & Projections

TE · TEN · Week 4 vs BAL

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards2212 - 3518.5-
Receptions32 - 42.5-
Anytime touchdown9.7%probability14.8%book implied

We project Gunnar Helm for 22 receiving yards against BAL, above the 18.5 book line. The likely range runs 12 to 35; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3NYGReceiving yards2313.514over
Wk 3NYGReceptions32.52under
Wk 2PHIReceiving yards1622.513under
Wk 2PHIReceptions232under
Wk 1NYJReceiving yards1720.528over
Wk 1NYJReceptions22.5--

Common questions

What is Gunnar Helm's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give Gunnar Helm a 9.7% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against BAL. The books price it near 14.8%.
What is Gunnar Helm's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project Gunnar Helm for 22 receiving yards (likely range 12 to 35), against a book line of 18.5.
How often has Gunnar Helm gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, Gunnar Helm has finished over the book line 2 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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