Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
Pat Freiermuth

Pat Freiermuth Props & Projections

TE · PIT · Week 4 vs CLE

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards2915 - 4729.5-
Receptions32 - 43.5-
Anytime touchdown22.4%probability16.2%book implied

We project Pat Freiermuth for 29 receiving yards against CLE, below the 29.5 book line. The likely range runs 15 to 47; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3CINReceiving yards4332.530under
Wk 3CINReceptions42.52under
Wk 2NEReceiving yards242632over
Wk 2NEReceptions22.54over
Wk 1ATLReceiving yards2526.546over
Wk 1ATLReceptions22.5--

Common questions

What is Pat Freiermuth's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give Pat Freiermuth a 22.4% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against CLE. The books price it near 16.2%.
What is Pat Freiermuth's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project Pat Freiermuth for 29 receiving yards (likely range 15 to 47), against a book line of 29.5.
How often has Pat Freiermuth gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, Pat Freiermuth has finished over the book line 3 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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