Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith Props & Projections

WR · PHI · Week 4 vs LA

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards6032 - 95--
Receptions53 - 7--
Anytime touchdown22.7%probability35.1%book implied

We project DeVonta Smith for 60 receiving yards against LA. The likely range runs 32 to 95; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3CHIReceiving yards5771.565under
Wk 3CHIReceptions55.56over
Wk 2TENReceiving yards6760.5117over
Wk 2TENReceptions54.510over
Wk 1WASReceiving yards596553under
Wk 1WASReceptions45.5--

Common questions

What is DeVonta Smith's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give DeVonta Smith a 22.7% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against LA. The books price it near 35.1%.
What is DeVonta Smith's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project DeVonta Smith for 60 receiving yards (likely range 32 to 95).
How often has DeVonta Smith gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, DeVonta Smith has finished over the book line 3 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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