NFL Prop Streaks — Week 6
Every prop market priced this week, grouped by price band, with our simulated probability and the player's active streak at that exact number. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
85%+ favorites
-567 or steeper| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |  BUF | 15+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 9 of last 10 | 93.2% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 10+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 👀11 straight10/10 | 91.9% |
 George Holani |  SEA | 2+ Carries | 86%-614 | 8 straight8/10 | 92.5% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 50+ Rush Yards | 88%-733 | 7 straight8/10 | 86.8% |
 Parker Washington |  JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 87%-669 | 9 of last 10 | 84.7% |
 Juwan Johnson |  NO | 15+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 👀25 straight10/10 | 81.9% |
 Brian Robinson |  ATL | 15+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 5 straight9/10 | 80.8% |
 Rome Odunze |  CHI | 15+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 5 straight8/10 | 80.6% |
 Brock Bowers |  LV | 40+ Rec Yards | 87%-669 | 3 straight7/10 | 82.5% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 175+ Pass Yards | 86%-614 | 6 straight8/10 | 80.7% |
 Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 150+ Pass Yards | 89%-809 | 👀22 straight10/10 | 82.8% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 50+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 78.8% |
Showing 12 of 52 — see the full 85%+ favorites list.
75-84%
-300 to -525| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | 20+ Rush Yards | 76%-317 | 8 of last 10 | 89.5% |
 Jakobi Meyers | JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 79%-376 | 👀73 straight10/10 | 87.1% |
 RJ Harvey |  DEN | 3+ Carries | 81%-426 | 9 of last 10 | 87.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 1+ Pass TD | 77%-335 | 3 straight8/10 | 82.5% |
 Kirk Cousins | LV | 200+ Pass Yards | 75%-300 | 4 straight5/10 | 78.2% |
 Brenton Strange | JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 84%-525 | 👀18 straight10/10 | 84.5% |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 60+ Rush Yards | 81%-426 | 5 straight6/10 | 81.4% |
 Chuba Hubbard |  CAR | 50+ Rush Yards | 75%-300 | 3 straight4/10 | 75.4% |
 James Cook III | BUF | 60+ Rush Yards | 80%-400 | 4 straight8/10 | 79.7% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 175+ Pass Yards | 84%-525 | 4 straight7/10 | 82.3% |
 Sam Darnold | SEA | 1+ Pass TD | 79%-376 | 3 straight6/10 | 77.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 175+ Pass Yards | 80%-400 | 👀12 straight10/10 | 78.5% |
Showing 12 of 70 — see the full 75-84% list.
65-74%
-186 to -285| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | 25+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 6 of last 10 | 84.4% |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 👀14 straight10/10 | 78.5% |
 Kayshon Boutte |  HOU | 15+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 76.3% |
 Tre Tucker | LV | 25+ Rec Yards | 72%-257 | 8 straight8/10 | 82.2% |
 Cooper Kupp | SEA | 15+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 👀8 of last 10 | 74.2% |
| Drake Maye | NE | 20+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 7 of last 10 | 73.8% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 10+ Rush Yards | 66%-194 | 👀8 of last 10 | 72.5% |
 Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 10+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 3 of last 5 | 72.5% |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 2+ Receptions | 68%-213 | 👀8 of last 10 | 72.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 200+ Pass Yards | 68%-213 | 👀8 of last 10 | 71.9% |
 C.J. Stroud | HOU | 225+ Pass Yards | 69%-223 | 6 of last 10 | 72.4% |
| Parker Washington | JAX | 40+ Rec Yards | 73%-270 | 8 of last 10 | 75.9% |
Showing 12 of 74 — see the full 65-74% list.
55-64%
-122 to -178| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kenny Gainwell |  TB | 10+ Rush Yards | 57%-133 | 👀8 of last 10 | 83.8% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 30+ Rush Yards | 59%-144 | 5 of last 10 | 77.5% |
 Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 40+ Rec Yards | 62%-163 | 4 of last 10 | 75.9% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | Anytime TD | 59%-144 | 👀6 straight8/10 | 72.3% |
 Jayden Daniels |  WAS | 30+ Rush Yards | 63%-170 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 75.8% |
 Javonte Williams |  DAL | Anytime TD | 63%-170 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 75.2% |
 Jaylen Warren |  PIT | 25+ Rec Yards | 57%-133 | 👀6 straight7/10 | 69.2% |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | Anytime TD | 62%-163 | 4 of last 10 | 73.7% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 225+ Pass Yards | 62%-163 | 4 straight5/10 | 72.4% |
 MarShawn Lloyd |  GB | Anytime TD | 56%-127 | 2 of last 6 | 65.8% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | Anytime TD | 64%-178 | 5 straight7/10 | 73.6% |
 D'Andre Swift | CHI | Anytime TD | 61%-156 | 4 of last 10 | 70.3% |
Showing 12 of 107 — see the full 55-64% list.
45-54% coin flips
+122 to -117| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ty Johnson | BUF | 15+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 👀7 of last 10 | 75.8% |
 Calvin Ridley |  TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 48%+108 | 👀7 of last 10 | 71.3% |
 Ashton Jeanty | LV | 25+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 3 straight5/10 | 74.4% |
 Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 👀7 of last 10 | 75.2% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 40+ Rec Yards | 49%+104 | 👀4 straight6/10 | 69.6% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | Anytime TD | 47%+113 | 👀6 of last 10 | 66.7% |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 50+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 2 of last 10 | 68.8% |
 Josh Cameron | JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 3 of last 5 | 68.8% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 250+ Pass Yards | 49%+104 | 3 of last 10 | 65.4% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 250+ Pass Yards | 45%+122 | 4 of last 10 | 61.1% |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | 40+ Rush Yards | 45%+122 | 5 of last 10 | 59.2% |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 250+ Pass Yards | 53%-113 | 5 of last 10 | 65.7% |
Showing 12 of 152 — see the full 45-54% coin flips list.
35-44%
+186 to +127| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | LV | 50+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 1 of last 10 | 61.3% |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 4 of last 10 | 59.2% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 275+ Pass Yards | 35%+186 | 2 of last 10 | 57.5% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 40+ Rush Yards | 42%+138 | 4 of last 10 | 62.5% |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 275+ Pass Yards | 40%+150 | 2 of last 10 | 58.0% |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | 40+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 5 of last 10 | 61.9% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 2+ Pass TD | 41%+144 | 👀7 of last 10 | 58.1% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 250+ Pass Yards | 40%+150 | 👀5 of last 10 | 55.5% |
 Braelon Allen |  NYJ | Anytime TD | 42%+138 | 3 of last 10 | 56.1% |
 Cole Kmet | CHI | 15+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 👀5 of last 10 | 52.5% |
| Josh Cameron | JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 2 of last 5 | 48.1% |
 Brock Purdy |  SF | 3+ Pass TD | 38%+163 | 👀5 of last 10 | 50.9% |
Showing 12 of 138 — see the full 35-44% list.
Under 35% longshots
+194 or longer| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cody White | LV | Anytime TD | 11%+809 | 2 of last 10 | 49.0% |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN | Anytime TD | 13%+669 | 👀3 of last 10 | 49.9% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 60+ Rec Yards | 27%+270 | 1 of last 10 | 52.9% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 70+ Rec Yards | 19%+426 | 1 of last 10 | 44.6% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 300+ Pass Yards | 19%+426 | 1 of last 10 | 44.2% |
| Josh Cameron | JAX | Anytime TD | 11%+809 | 2 of last 5 | 35.8% |
| Tre Tucker | LV | 80+ Rec Yards | 12%+733 | 1 of last 10 | 36.8% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 300+ Pass Yards | 24%+317 | 2 of last 10 | 49.2% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 40+ Rec Yards | 29%+245 | 👀4 of last 10 | 54.4% |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 70+ Rec Yards | 28%+257 | 2 of last 10 | 53.2% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 2+ TDs | 12%+733 | 👀3 of last 10 | 36.0% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 50+ Rec Yards | 18%+456 | 👀3 of last 10 | 42.2% |
Showing 12 of 642 — see the full Under 35% longshots list.
How to read this page
What is a price band?
Prop markets price every outcome as a percentage. We group this week's props into bands, from heavy favorites priced above 85 percent down to longshots under 35 percent, so you can see what the market charges at each level of certainty.
What does the market price mean?
It is the cost of a yes on that outcome at the time shown, quoted both as a percentage and as an American line. A 66 percent price is the same bet as -194 at a sportsbook.
How is your probability different from the price?
Our number comes from simulating the game thousands of times, with no knowledge of the market price. Sometimes the two agree, sometimes they do not. Where they differ, one of them is wrong, and it is not always the market.
What does the eyes emoji mean?
The player's hit rate over his last 10 games at that exact number runs at least 10 points above the market price, with a minimum of 8 games played. It describes the past, it is not a recommendation.
Do streaks or projections predict this week?
No. Streaks describe what already happened and the projection describes our simulation. Defenses, game script, and injuries change weekly.
Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation. For this week's full projections next to every book line, see the board, or any player's page for his active streaks and game log.