Christian McCaffrey Props & Projections
RB · SF · Week 4 vs DEN
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 53 | 32 - 82 | 65 | under |
| Receiving yards | 43 | 24 - 67 | 40.5 | - |
| Receptions | 5 | 3 - 8 | 4.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 77.8% | probability | 66.4% | book implied |
We project Christian McCaffrey for 53 rushing yards against DEN, below the 65 book line. The likely range runs 32 to 82; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
| Week | Opp | Market | Projection | Book line | Actual | vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ARI | Rushing yards | 52 | 57.5 | 75 | over |
| Wk 3 | ARI | Receiving yards | 37 | 39 | 41 | over |
| Wk 3 | ARI | Receptions | 4 | 4.5 | 4 | under |
| Wk 2 | MIA | Rushing yards | 48 | 59.5 | 23 | under |
| Wk 2 | MIA | Receiving yards | 39 | 42.5 | 43 | over |
| Wk 2 | MIA | Receptions | 5 | 4.5 | 4 | under |
| Wk 1 | LA | Rushing yards | 58 | - | 68 | - |
| Wk 1 | LA | Receiving yards | 40 | - | 20 | - |
| Wk 1 | LA | Receptions | 5 | - | - | - |
Common questions
- What is Christian McCaffrey's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give Christian McCaffrey a 77.8% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against DEN. The books price it near 66.4%.
- What is Christian McCaffrey's rushing yards projection for Week 4?
- We project Christian McCaffrey for 53 rushing yards (likely range 32 to 82), against a book line of 65.
- How often has Christian McCaffrey gone over the book line?
- Across the props we have tracked and graded, Christian McCaffrey has finished over the book line 3 of 6 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.