AJ Dillon Props & Projections
RB · CAR · Week 4 vs DET
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 20 | 12 - 30 | 13.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 8.5% | probability | 13.3% | book implied |
We project AJ Dillon for 20 rushing yards against DET, above the 13.5 book line. The likely range runs 12 to 30; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
| Week | Opp | Market | Projection | Book line | Actual | vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CLE | Rushing yards | 11 | 16.5 | 16 | under |
Common questions
- What is AJ Dillon's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give AJ Dillon a 8.5% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against DET. The books price it near 13.3%.
- What is AJ Dillon's rushing yards projection for Week 4?
- We project AJ Dillon for 20 rushing yards (likely range 12 to 30), against a book line of 13.5.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.