Jake Ferguson Props & Projections
TE · DAL · Week 4 vs HOU
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards | 26 | 14 - 42 | 24.5 | - |
| Receptions | 4 | 2 - 6 | 3.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 44.8% | probability | 24.4% | book implied |
We project Jake Ferguson for 26 receiving yards against HOU, above the 24.5 book line. The likely range runs 14 to 42; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
Common questions
- What is Jake Ferguson's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give Jake Ferguson a 44.8% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against HOU. The books price it near 24.4%.
- What is Jake Ferguson's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
- We project Jake Ferguson for 26 receiving yards (likely range 14 to 42), against a book line of 24.5.
- How often has Jake Ferguson gone over the book line?
- Across the props we have tracked and graded, Jake Ferguson has finished over the book line 2 of 5 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.