Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
Mike Evans

Mike Evans Props & Projections

WR · SF · Week 4 vs DEN

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards3718 - 61--
Receptions32 - 5--
Anytime touchdown40.5%probability38.5%book implied

We project Mike Evans for 37 receiving yards against DEN. The likely range runs 18 to 61; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3ARIReceiving yards4554.534under
Wk 3ARIReceptions44.53under
Wk 2MIAReceiving yards3848.554over
Wk 2MIAReceptions33.53under
Wk 1LAReceiving yards40-49-
Wk 1LAReceptions3---

Common questions

What is Mike Evans's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give Mike Evans a 40.5% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against DEN. The books price it near 38.5%.
What is Mike Evans's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project Mike Evans for 37 receiving yards (likely range 18 to 61).
How often has Mike Evans gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, Mike Evans has finished over the book line 1 of 4 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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