Opening Line AnalyticsNFL
DJ Moore

DJ Moore Props & Projections

WR · BUF · Week 4 vs NE

This week

MarketProjectionLikely rangeBook lineLean
Receiving yards3115 - 5249under
Receptions31 - 43.5-
Anytime touchdown30.3%probability39.2%book implied

We project DJ Moore for 31 receiving yards against NE, below the 49 book line. The likely range runs 15 to 52; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.

Projection vs results, week by week

WeekOppMarketProjectionBook lineActualvs line
Wk 3LACReceiving yards3351.567over
Wk 3LACReceptions35.56over
Wk 2DETReceiving yards5863.50under
Wk 2DETReceptions54.5--
Wk 1HOUReceiving yards3146.5100over
Wk 1HOUReceptions33.5--

Common questions

What is DJ Moore's anytime touchdown probability this week?
Our simulations give DJ Moore a 30.3% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against NE. The books price it near 39.2%.
What is DJ Moore's receiving yards projection for Week 4?
We project DJ Moore for 31 receiving yards (likely range 15 to 52), against a book line of 49.
How often has DJ Moore gone over the book line?
Across the props we have tracked and graded, DJ Moore has finished over the book line 3 of 4 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
Where do these numbers come from?
Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.

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