Chase Brown Props & Projections
RB · CIN · Week 4 vs JAX
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 52 | 31 - 78 | 64 | under |
| Receiving yards | 21 | 11 - 32 | 19.5 | - |
| Receptions | 3 | 2 - 5 | 3.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 60.7% | probability | 63.6% | book implied |
We project Chase Brown for 52 rushing yards against JAX, below the 64 book line. The likely range runs 31 to 78; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
| Week | Opp | Market | Projection | Book line | Actual | vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | PIT | Rushing yards | 59 | 73.5 | 61 | under |
| Wk 3 | PIT | Receiving yards | 26 | 15 | 8 | under |
| Wk 3 | PIT | Receptions | 4 | 1.5 | 2 | over |
| Wk 2 | HOU | Rushing yards | 53 | 57.5 | 80 | over |
| Wk 2 | HOU | Receiving yards | 19 | - | 2 | - |
| Wk 2 | HOU | Receptions | 4 | - | 3 | - |
| Wk 1 | TB | Rushing yards | 55 | 57.5 | 56 | under |
| Wk 1 | TB | Receiving yards | 25 | 23.5 | 22 | under |
| Wk 1 | TB | Receptions | 4 | 3.5 | - | - |
Common questions
- What is Chase Brown's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give Chase Brown a 60.7% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against JAX. The books price it near 63.6%.
- What is Chase Brown's rushing yards projection for Week 4?
- We project Chase Brown for 52 rushing yards (likely range 31 to 78), against a book line of 64.
- How often has Chase Brown gone over the book line?
- Across the props we have tracked and graded, Chase Brown has finished over the book line 2 of 6 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.