Jaylen Warren Props & Projections
RB · PIT · Week 4 vs CLE
This week
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing yards | 46 | 29 - 68 | 84 | under |
| Receiving yards | 21 | 11 - 34 | 35.5 | under |
| Receptions | 3 | 2 - 4 | 4.5 | - |
| Anytime touchdown | 41.1% | probability | 33.9% | book implied |
We project Jaylen Warren for 46 rushing yards against CLE, below the 84 book line. The likely range runs 29 to 68; the full distribution comes from 10,000 simulations of this game.
Projection vs results, week by week
| Week | Opp | Market | Projection | Book line | Actual | vs line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | Rushing yards | 57 | 94.5 | 127 | over |
| Wk 3 | CIN | Receiving yards | 25 | 49.5 | 49 | under |
| Wk 3 | CIN | Receptions | 3 | 3.5 | 3 | under |
| Wk 2 | NE | Rushing yards | 33 | 41.5 | 43 | over |
| Wk 2 | NE | Receiving yards | 22 | 19.5 | 34 | over |
| Wk 2 | NE | Receptions | 3 | 2.5 | 2 | under |
| Wk 1 | ATL | Rushing yards | 38 | 42.5 | 46 | over |
| Wk 1 | ATL | Receiving yards | 23 | 18.5 | 27 | over |
| Wk 1 | ATL | Receptions | 3 | 2.5 | - | - |
Common questions
- What is Jaylen Warren's anytime touchdown probability this week?
- Our simulations give Jaylen Warren a 41.1% chance to score a touchdown in Week 4 against CLE. The books price it near 33.9%.
- What is Jaylen Warren's rushing yards projection for Week 4?
- We project Jaylen Warren for 46 rushing yards (likely range 29 to 68), against a book line of 84.
- How often has Jaylen Warren gone over the book line?
- Across the props we have tracked and graded, Jaylen Warren has finished over the book line 5 of 8 times. Every week's projection, line, and actual is in the game log below.
- Where do these numbers come from?
- Each game is simulated 10,000 times. We publish the projected median plus the p25 to p75 range next to the book line, so you can see the full spread of outcomes rather than a single number.