NFL Week 4 Player Props & Projections (2026)
Weekly NFL player prop projections built by simulating each game 10,000 times. We surface a projected median plus the p25 to p75 range for passing, rushing, and receiving yards, so you can see the full spread of outcomes and weigh it against the book's line yourself.
Live lines. Sportsbook lines are on the board, drawn from a consensus of major books. An over under lean appears only where our projection clearly disagrees with the posted line; everything else is information, not a call.
Projections updated October 2, 2026. Lines updated October 2 at 2:10 AM.
Week 4, 2026 season. Projections from 10,000 game simulations, updated 10/2/2026.
Projections are descriptive simulation output, not betting advice. Book lines shown are a consensus across major sportsbooks.
How the projections work
Instead of committing to one number, we run each game 10,000 times. Every run is a slightly different version of that Sunday, with different drives, play calls, and bounces. What comes out is a full spread of everything that could reasonably happen for a player, which is a lot closer to how football really behaves.
From those 10,000 outcomes we pull the median, the middle result, as the headline projection, plus the p25 to p75 band, the range where most outcomes landed. A tight band means the player is fairly predictable. A wide band is your signal that the outcome is volatile. Drop the book's line on top and you can see the gap, which is the edge, and decide for yourself.
Read the full breakdown of how our projections work
Prop guides
- How our NFL prop projections work
- How NFL passing yards props work
- How NFL anytime touchdown props work
- All NFL prop guides
Common questions
- What is the NFL player props board?
- It is a weekly board of NFL player prop projections. For each player we simulate the game 10,000 times and surface a projected median plus the p25 to p75 range for passing, rushing, and receiving yards, so you can see the full spread of outcomes next to the book line.
- How are the projections made?
- We run each matchup 10,000 times so every player ends up with a full range of possible stat lines instead of one guess. The median is the middle outcome and the p25 to p75 band is where most of the results landed.
- Which markets are covered?
- Passing yards, rushing yards, and receiving yards, plus anytime touchdown scorer probabilities on their own tab. Fantasy points projections are there too.
- How does the player card hit rate work?
- Open any player to see how often they have reached our projected number in the past. We count a game as a hit when the player met or exceeded the projected line, and show the rate for their career, against this week opponent, and over recent seasons. Drag the slider to test any number, over or under.
- Are these betting picks?
- No. They are descriptive projections meant to show you how the outcomes shake out so you can make the call yourself. We do not publish a win or loss record here.