NFL Week 1 2026 Projections vs Results

The full Week 1 board, kept for the record: our projected passing, rushing, and receiving yards next to the final book line and what each player actually did.

Week 4 projections are live →

Archived. Projections for Week 1, kept for reference.

Projections updated September 13, 2026.

Passing yards

Player	Team	Projection	Book line	Actual
Matthew Stafford	LA	283	none posted	155
Dak Prescott	DAL	264	259.5	175
Daniel Jones	IND	250	230.5	166
Jared Goff	DET	248	259.5	206
Drake Maye	NE	244	none posted	178
Brock Purdy	SF	241	none posted	205
Patrick Mahomes	KC	240	224	184
Joe Burrow	CIN	236	269.5	254
Justin Herbert	LAC	236	235	209
Sam Darnold	SEA	225	none posted	13
Baker Mayfield	TB	223	232.5	216
Caleb Williams	CHI	219	228.5	269
Tyler Shough	NO	217	240.5	410
Jacoby Brissett	ARI	215	220.5	277
Josh Allen	BUF	214	220.5	334
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	213	230.5	245
Jalen Hurts	PHI	211	212.5	203
Bo Nix	DEN	210	225.5	131
Geno Smith	NYJ	209	209.5	215
Lamar Jackson	BAL	206	215.5	324
Aaron Rodgers	PIT	204	212.5	221
Jordan Love	GB	196	238.5	387
Bryce Young	CAR	189	209	361
C.J. Stroud	HOU	185	222.5	274
Malik Willis	MIA	182	175.5	220
Cam Ward	TEN	180	201.5	140
Kyler Murray	MIN	179	220	18
Jaxson Dart	NYG	173	210.5	230
Kirk Cousins	LV	169	207.5	160
Jayden Daniels	WAS	167	199.5	164
Cooper Rush	ATL	161	none posted	143
Deshaun Watson	CLE	159	177.5	205

Rushing yards

Player	Team	Projection	Book line	Actual
Jonathan Taylor	IND	77	76.5	98
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	76	84.5	156
Derrick Henry	BAL	76	78.5	144
James Cook	BUF	72	73.5	57
Javonte Williams	DAL	72	75	41
Jadarian Price	SEA	71	none posted	52
Breece Hall	NYJ	71	63.5	102
D'Andre Swift	CHI	70	59.5	124
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	68	none posted	51
Bucky Irving	TB	67	60.5	45
Saquon Barkley	PHI	67	76.5	83
Bijan Robinson	ATL	66	76.5	83
Kyren Williams	LA	64	none posted	41
Tony Pollard	TEN	63	48.5	35
Omarion Hampton	LAC	62	70	43
De'Von Achane	MIA	59	69.5	36
Christian McCaffrey	SF	58	none posted	68
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	58	51	49
Chase Brown	CIN	55	57.5	56
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	53	55.5	33
David Montgomery	HOU	51	54.5	60
Travis Etienne	NO	48	56.5	46
Kenneth Walker III	KC	46	64.5	173
Cam Skattebo	NYG	45	49.5	81
Kimani Vidal	LAC	43	none posted	not recorded
Ashton Jeanty	LV	43	59	102
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	43	none posted	14
TreVeyon Henderson	NE	41	none posted	not recorded
Jordan Mason	MIN	41	44	59
J.K. Dobbins	DEN	40	49	36
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	39	47	66
Rico Dowdle	PIT	39	46	15
MarShawn Lloyd	GB	39	44.5	37
Jaylen Warren	PIT	38	42.5	46
Blake Corum	LA	36	none posted	54
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX	36	37.5	23
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	36	39.5	63
Alvin Kamara	NO	35	none posted	not recorded
Jayden Daniels	WAS	35	35.5	31
Jeremiyah Love	ARI	32	38.5	41
Jaxson Dart	NYG	32	31.5	54
Kyler Murray	MIN	30	23.5	9
Kyle Monangai	CHI	28	32.5	100
Josh Allen	BUF	28	30.5	23
Justin Herbert	LAC	28	21.5	29
Malik Willis	MIA	27	39.5	39
Jaylen Wright	MIA	27	none posted	-1
Marcus Mariota	WAS	27	none posted	not recorded
Tyler Allgeier	ARI	26	29.5	61
Mike Washington Jr.	LV	26	27.5	41
Aaron Jones	MIN	25	29.5	40
George Holani	SEA	24	none posted	29
Woody Marks	HOU	24	26.5	42
Jalen Hurts	PHI	24	29.5	46
Emanuel Wilson	SEA	23	none posted	3
Jonathon Brooks	CAR	23	31	14
Kendre Miller	NO	23	none posted	30
Devin Singletary	NYG	23	none posted	16
Lamar Jackson	BAL	22	39.5	40
Keaton Mitchell	LAC	22	25.5	9
Chris Brooks	GB	22	none posted	29
Kenny Gainwell	TB	21	22	15
Sione Vaki	DET	21	none posted	7
Rachaad White	WAS	21	23.5	22
Emmett Johnson	KC	21	15	24
Drake Maye	NE	20	none posted	47
Tyjae Spears	TEN	20	25.5	12
Tank Bigsby	PHI	17	17.5	3
Brian Robinson	ATL	16	19.5	31
Braelon Allen	NYJ	16	19.5	40
RJ Harvey	DEN	15	17.5	18
Samaje Perine	CIN	14	17.5	20
Justice Hill	BAL	7	8.5	18

Receiving yards

Player	Team	Projection	Book line	Actual
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	89	85.5	12
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	86	none posted	122
Puka Nacua	LA	85	none posted	74
Zay Flowers	BAL	78	65.5	150
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	78	75.5	44
George Pickens	DAL	74	66.5	28
Chris Olave	NO	67	76.5	182
Rashee Rice	KC	66	52	19
DK Metcalf	PIT	64	48.5	40
Luther Burden III	CHI	63	57.5	63
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	63	77.5	67
Drake London	ATL	59	54	29
DeVonta Smith	PHI	59	65	53
Tyler Warren	IND	58	47	13
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	57	60.5	75
Tee Higgins	CIN	57	62	59
A.J. Brown	NE	56	none posted	26
Justin Jefferson	MIN	56	73.5	92
Trey McBride	ARI	55	56.5	95
Emeka Egbuka	TB	54	56.5	63
Alec Pierce	IND	53	42.5	61
Nico Collins	HOU	52	69.5	75
Colston Loveland	CHI	51	54.5	0
Quentin Johnston	LAC	51	43	17
Jameson Williams	DET	49	57.5	45
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	49	61	79
Malik Nabers	NYG	49	55.5	69
Juwan Johnson	NO	48	42.5	54
Jaylen Waddle	DEN	47	57.5	2
Parker Washington	JAX	46	53	83
Michael Pittman	PIT	46	38.5	58
Ladd McConkey	LAC	45	57.5	82
Travis Kelce	KC	45	42	71
Davante Adams	LA	44	none posted	26
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	44	35.5	21
Terry McLaurin	WAS	44	48.5	14
Kyle Pitts	ATL	43	38	0
Christian Watson	GB	43	56.5	147
George Kittle	SF	42	none posted	12
Rome Odunze	CHI	42	39.5	52
Josh Downs	IND	42	46.5	37
Brenton Strange	JAX	42	36	23
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	42	41.5	38
Chris Godwin Jr.	TB	41	47.5	40
Sam LaPorta	DET	41	43.5	48
Mike Evans	SF	40	none posted	49
Christian McCaffrey	SF	40	none posted	20
Oronde Gadsden II	LAC	40	none posted	32
Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	39	47	33
Xavier Worthy	KC	39	35.5	18
Jordan Addison	MIN	38	42.5	0
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	37	38	130
Bijan Robinson	ATL	37	33.5	90
Jayden Reed	GB	37	43	20
Khalil Shakir	BUF	36	35.5	50
Michael Mayer	LV	36	41	32
Stefon Diggs	WAS	36	40.5	55
Dallas Goedert	PHI	36	37.5	77
Cade Otton	TB	35	31.5	26
Tucker Kraft	GB	35	44	65
Jalen Coker	CAR	34	40	138
Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	34	38	40
Carnell Tate	TEN	34	37.5	38
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF	33	none posted	48
Keenan Allen	IND	33	27.5	32
Jakobi Meyers	JAX	33	37.5	40
Tre Tucker	LV	33	46.5	27
Michael Wilson	ARI	32	41.5	56
Courtland Sutton	DEN	32	41.5	11
Romeo Doubs	NE	31	none posted	0
Hunter Henry	NE	31	none posted	26
DJ Moore	BUF	31	46.5	100
Malik Washington	MIA	31	26.5	53
Jake Ferguson	DAL	31	29.5	6
Devaughn Vele	NO	30	40	69
Dalton Schultz	HOU	30	34.5	35
Rashid Shaheed	SEA	29	none posted	4
Cooper Kupp	SEA	29	none posted	35
Jerry Jeudy	CLE	29	29.5	26
T.J. Hockenson	MIN	29	25.5	36
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	28	30.5	30
De'Von Achane	MIA	28	27.5	30
Dontayvion Wicks	PHI	28	28.5	73
Ryan Flournoy	DAL	28	24.5	22
Mack Hollins	NE	27	none posted	51
Colby Parkinson	LA	27	none posted	6
Mike Gesicki	CIN	27	20.5	78
Keon Coleman	BUF	27	11.5	1
Mark Andrews	BAL	27	35.5	49
Kenny Gainwell	TB	26	22.5	3
Jonathan Taylor	IND	26	17.5	23
Caleb Douglas	MIA	26	26.5	94
Chase Brown	CIN	25	23.5	22
Pat Freiermuth	PIT	25	26.5	46
Greg Dulcich	MIA	25	26	18
Makai Lemon	PHI	25	23.5	-5
AJ Barner	SEA	24	none posted	13
David Njoku	LAC	24	none posted	58
Isaiah Likely	NYG	24	37.5	78
Evan Engram	DEN	24	22.5	43
Rashod Bateman	BAL	23	26	0
Denzel Boston	CLE	23	25	59
Jaylen Warren	PIT	23	18.5	27
Adonai Mitchell	NYJ	23	31.5	60
Malachi Fields	NYG	23	23.5	25
Troy Franklin	DEN	23	none posted	0
Jake Tonges	SF	22	none posted	not recorded
Devontez Walker	BAL	22	none posted	not recorded
KC Concepcion	CLE	22	33	43
Calvin Ridley	TEN	22	27.5	not recorded
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	21	none posted	44
Tyler Higbee	LA	21	none posted	12
Ja'Kobi Lane	BAL	21	19.5	11
Matthew Golden	GB	21	39	95
Noah Fant	NO	20	none posted	33
Isaiah Bond	CLE	20	none posted	not recorded
Mason Taylor	NYJ	20	21.5	-2
Elic Ayomanor	TEN	20	none posted	11
Chig Okonkwo	WAS	20	25.5	16
DeMario Douglas	NE	19	none posted	20
Tez Johnson	TB	19	none posted	0
Roman Wilson	PIT	19	10.5	26
Breece Hall	NYJ	19	20.5	16
Tre Harris	LAC	19	26.5	20
Jalen Nailor	LV	19	37.5	27
Jauan Jennings	MIN	19	21.5	0
Darnell Mooney	NYG	19	21.5	27
Cam Skattebo	NYG	19	15.5	0
Tyquan Thornton	KC	19	19.5	0
Kayshon Boutte	HOU	18	25.5	21
Marvin Mims Jr.	DEN	18	11.5	not recorded
Terrance Ferguson	LA	17	none posted	0
Dylan Sampson	CLE	17	8.5	not recorded
Jahan Dotson	ATL	17	14	19
Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	17	none posted	5
Gunnar Helm	TEN	17	20.5	28
Xavier Smith	LA	16	none posted	not recorded
Kyren Williams	LA	16	none posted	24
Jahdae Walker	CHI	16	none posted	1
Travis Etienne	NO	16	15.5	32
Xavier Hutchinson	HOU	16	17.5	32
Chimere Dike	TEN	16	none posted	7
Charlie Kolar	LAC	16	17.5	not recorded
Ashton Jeanty	LV	16	17.5	45
Aaron Jones	MIN	16	14.5	0
Luke McCaffrey	WAS	16	none posted	not recorded
Saquon Barkley	PHI	16	15.5	-3
Kenneth Walker III	KC	16	21	18
Xavier Legette	CAR	15.5	18	0
Tory Horton	SEA	15	none posted	not recorded
Kalif Raymond	CHI	15	14.5	84
Cole Kmet	CHI	15	14	35
D'Andre Swift	CHI	15	13.5	10
Darren Waller	CAR	15	16.5	28
Alvin Kamara	NO	15	none posted	not recorded
Austin Hooper	ATL	15	none posted	not recorded
Darnell Washington	PIT	15	16	18
Daniel Bellinger	TEN	15	none posted	7
Kendrick Bourne	ARI	15	18.5	75
Theo Johnson	NYG	15	14.5	9
Pat Bryant	DEN	15	24.5	42
Andrei Iosivas	CIN	14	13.5	12
Isaac TeSlaa	DET	14	17.5	0
Omar Cooper Jr.	NYJ	14	13.5	30
Chris Bell	MIA	14	17.5	25
Bucky Irving	TB	13	13.5	48
James Cook	BUF	13	19.5	12
Kenyon Sadiq	NYJ	13	14	21
Tyjae Spears	TEN	13	16	12
Jack Bech	LV	13	18.5	23
Hollywood Brown	PHI	13	11	not recorded
Justice Hill	BAL	12	11.5	10
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	12	11.5	22
Jeremiyah Love	ARI	12	15.5	9
Odell Beckham Jr.	NYG	12	11.5	not recorded
Tommy Tremble	CAR	11	10.5	25
Dawson Knox	BUF	11	13	7
Jaylin Noel	HOU	11	14.5	53
Omarion Hampton	LAC	11	12.5	0
Jalen Tolbert	MIA	11	11	not recorded
RJ Harvey	DEN	11	16.5	23
Noah Gray	KC	11	9.5	5
Joshua Palmer	BUF	10	11.5	34
Rico Dowdle	PIT	10	10.5	6
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	9	9.5	38
Jonathon Brooks	CAR	9	9.5	48
Derrick Henry	BAL	9	6.5	19
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	9	9.5	17
Tony Pollard	TEN	9	9.5	-1
MarShawn Lloyd	GB	9	10.5	0
KaVontae Turpin	DAL	9	7.5	8
Kyle Monangai	CHI	8	6.5	24
David Montgomery	HOU	8	11	19
Woody Marks	HOU	8	9.5	-2
Javonte Williams	DAL	8	10.5	31
Adam Trautman	DEN	8	6.5	10
Rachaad White	WAS	7	14.5	5
Samaje Perine	CIN	6	6.5	30
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	6	6.5	-7
J.K. Dobbins	DEN	3	4.5	0