NFL Player Projections — Week 4

The current week's projections for every market, updated in place each week. Every player links to their page with the full projection-vs-result record. Updated 2026-10-02.

New to the numbers? How our projections work

Passing yards

Player	Team	Opp	Projection	Likely range	Book line
Matthew Stafford	LA	PHI	258	181 - 337	249.5
Jared Goff	DET	CAR	256	181 - 333	263.5
Daniel Jones	IND	WAS	251	177.8 - 322	225.5
Dak Prescott	DAL	HOU	250	176 - 326	266.5
Patrick Mahomes	KC	LV	243	171 - 317	236.5
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	CIN	242	171 - 314	260.5
Carson Wentz	MIN	MIA	242	172 - 313	-
Jordan Love	GB	TB	237	169 - 306	245.5
Jacoby Brissett	ARI	NYG	236	166 - 307	232.5
Bo Nix	DEN	SF	233	162 - 304	223
C.J. Stroud	HOU	DAL	231	165 - 300	245.5
Brock Purdy	SF	DEN	228	160 - 296	236.5
Drake Maye	NE	BUF	223	160 - 287	231.5
Joe Burrow	CIN	JAX	223	157 - 292	267.5
Justin Herbert	LAC	SEA	219	153 - 287	199.5
Josh Allen	BUF	NE	216	154 - 280	242.5
Tyler Shough	NO	ATL	209	147 - 271	256.5
Jalen Hurts	PHI	LA	203	143 - 263	188.5
Lamar Jackson	BAL	TEN	202	144 - 259	217.5
Geno Smith	NYJ	CHI	202	143 - 265.2	227.5
Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	NO	202	143 - 264	224.5
Cam Ward	TEN	BAL	197	135 - 258	185.5
Jameis Winston	NYG	ARI	197	140 - 255	210.5
Bryce Young	CAR	DET	187	130 - 248	248.5
Aaron Rodgers	PIT	CLE	186	129 - 245	265.5
Marcus Mariota	WAS	IND	180	128 - 233	214.5
Deshaun Watson	CLE	PIT	171	118 - 226	256.5
Kirk Cousins	LV	KC	157	109 - 209	222.5
Jalon Daniels	TB	GB	150	105 - 199	172.5
Tyson Bagent	CHI	NYJ	142	99 - 189	201.5
Drew Lock	SEA	LAC	136	94 - 182	-
Malik Willis	MIA	MIN	111	99 - 125	168.5

Rushing yards

Player	Team	Opp	Projection	Likely range	Book line
Javonte Williams	DAL	HOU	104	64 - 153	60
Bijan Robinson	ATL	NO	97	62 - 140	86.5
Jeremiyah Love	ARI	NYG	91	58 - 132	66.5
Jonathan Taylor	IND	WAS	89	58 - 126	90.5
Jadarian Price	SEA	LAC	86	52 - 130	42.5
Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	BUF	84	53 - 120	31.5
David Montgomery	HOU	DAL	81	50 - 119	44.5
Derrick Henry	BAL	TEN	80	51 - 115	96.5
Aaron Jones	MIN	MIA	80	51 - 117	67.5
J.K. Dobbins	DEN	SF	80	51 - 115	59.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	CAR	78	50 - 111	96.5
Breece Hall	NYJ	CHI	77	48 - 112	-
Kenneth Walker III	KC	LV	77	48 - 113	86
D'Andre Swift	CHI	NYJ	76	49 - 108	-
Omarion Hampton	LAC	SEA	76	47 - 114	45.5
James Cook	BUF	NE	75	48 - 109	87.5
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	IND	74	46 - 109	62.5
Jaylen Wright	MIA	MIN	71	44 - 104	28.5
Kyren Williams	LA	PHI	69	44 - 99	59.5
Bucky Irving	TB	GB	60	36 - 93	54.5
Saquon Barkley	PHI	LA	59	36 - 89	69.5
Kaleb Johnson	GB	TB	57	35 - 86	30.5
Tony Pollard	TEN	BAL	54	34 - 81	47.5
Chuba Hubbard	CAR	DET	54	33 - 82	66.5
Christian McCaffrey	SF	DEN	53	32 - 82	65
Chase Brown	CIN	JAX	52	31 - 78	64
TreVeyon Henderson	NE	BUF	50	33 - 72	40
Jaylen Warren	PIT	CLE	46	29 - 68	84
Quinshon Judkins	CLE	PIT	46	28 - 70	43.5
Cam Skattebo	NYG	ARI	46	28 - 67	62.5
Ashton Jeanty	LV	KC	46	28 - 71	59.5
Bhayshul Tuten	JAX	CIN	45	27 - 67	53.5
Kyle Monangai	CHI	NYJ	43	28 - 62	-
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	ARI	43	27 - 64	-
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	JAX	CIN	41	26 - 58	20
Blake Corum	LA	PHI	39	25 - 56	41.5
Woody Marks	HOU	DAL	38	23 - 59	34.5
Justin Fields	KC	LV	37	24 - 52	-
Kimani Vidal	LAC	SEA	37	22 - 56	-
Alvin Kamara	NO	ATL	37	23 - 57	37
Kyler Murray	MIN	MIA	33	22 - 45	20.5
Jayden Daniels	WAS	IND	32	20 - 46	-
Tyler Goodson	DAL	HOU	31	19 - 46	-
Tyler Allgeier	ARI	NYG	31	19 - 46	18.5
Kenny Gainwell	TB	GB	31	19 - 44	16
Josh Allen	BUF	NE	29	18 - 42	31.5
Brian Robinson	ATL	NO	29	18 - 43	30.5
Emanuel Wilson	SEA	LAC	28	17 - 42	44.5
Rachaad White	WAS	IND	27	16 - 40	-
Malik Willis	MIA	MIN	27	18 - 38	28.5

Receiving yards

Player	Team	Opp	Projection	Likely range	Book line
Christian Watson	GB	TB	83	45 - 131	66
Nico Collins	HOU	DAL	78	42 - 125	74
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	JAX	73	42 - 113	81.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	LAC	72	39 - 113	92.5
Puka Nacua	LA	PHI	71	39 - 111	78.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	CAR	70	39 - 110	77.5
Zay Flowers	BAL	TEN	69	38 - 109	67.5
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	HOU	67	36 - 105	76.5
George Pickens	DAL	HOU	63	34 - 100	67.5
Trey McBride	ARI	NYG	63	35 - 97	66.5
Justin Jefferson	MIN	MIA	63	34 - 98	-
Chris Olave	NO	ATL	63	34 - 100	85.5
Tucker Kraft	GB	TB	61	33 - 96	41.5
Rashee Rice	KC	LV	61	32 - 95	54.5
Terry McLaurin	WAS	IND	60	32 - 95	51.5
DeVonta Smith	PHI	LA	60	32 - 95	-
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	BAL	56	30 - 89	37.5
Parker Washington	JAX	CIN	56	30 - 90	74
Jameson Williams	DET	CAR	55	28 - 88	51.5
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	DET	55	29 - 87	70.5
Drake London	ATL	NO	55	29.8 - 89	78.5
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	PIT	54	30 - 86	27.5
Michael Wilson	ARI	NYG	54	28 - 85	57.5
Malik Nabers	NYG	ARI	53	27 - 85	54.5
Jaylen Waddle	DEN	SF	53	27 - 85	57.5
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	CHI	52	28 - 83	75.5
Tyler Warren	IND	WAS	48	26 - 77	48.5
Denzel Boston	CLE	PIT	46	24 - 73	89
Keenan Allen	IND	WAS	46	25 - 73	35.5
Brock Bowers	LV	KC	46	25 - 73	73.5
Sam LaPorta	DET	CAR	46	26 - 71	48.5
Tee Higgins	CIN	JAX	45	23 - 74	62.5
Dalton Schultz	HOU	DAL	45	25 - 70	40.5
Greg Dulcich	MIA	MIN	45	25 - 71	29.5
Quentin Johnston	LAC	SEA	45	23 - 73	33.5
Juwan Johnson	NO	ATL	45	24 - 71	39.5
Marvin Harrison Jr.	ARI	NYG	44	22 - 73.2	33.5
George Kittle	SF	DEN	44	24.8 - 70	64.5
Christian McCaffrey	SF	DEN	43	24 - 67	40.5
Jakobi Meyers	JAX	CIN	42	23 - 67	39.5
Travis Kelce	KC	LV	42	22 - 67	47.5
Ladd McConkey	LAC	SEA	42	22 - 67	46.5
DK Metcalf	PIT	CLE	41	20 - 66	48.5
Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	CIN	41	19 - 67	29
Romeo Doubs	NE	BUF	40	20 - 64	40
Jordan Addison	MIN	MIA	40	19 - 66	55.5
Kyle Pitts	ATL	NO	40	21 - 63	28
Dalton Kincaid	BUF	NE	39	20 - 61	52.5
Rome Odunze	CHI	NYJ	39	18 - 64	31.5
Kayshon Boutte	HOU	DAL	39	20 - 61	24.5

Receptions

Player	Team	Opp	Projection	Likely range	Book line
Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	JAX	7	4 - 10	6.5
Trey McBride	ARI	NYG	7	4 - 10	6.5
Puka Nacua	LA	PHI	6	4 - 9	6.5
Rashee Rice	KC	LV	6	4 - 9	4.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	CAR	6	4 - 9	7.5
Chris Olave	NO	ATL	6	3 - 9	6.5
Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	PIT	5	3 - 8	3.5
Keenan Allen	IND	WAS	5	3 - 7	3.5
Tyler Warren	IND	WAS	5	3 - 7	5.5
Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	BAL	5	3 - 7	3.5
Zay Flowers	BAL	TEN	5	3 - 7	5.5
Garrett Wilson	NYJ	CHI	5	3 - 7	6.5
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	HOU	5	3 - 8	5.5
George Pickens	DAL	HOU	5	3 - 7	4.5
Nico Collins	HOU	DAL	5	3 - 7	5.5
Dalton Schultz	HOU	DAL	5	3 - 7	4.5
DeVonta Smith	PHI	LA	5	3 - 7	-
Christian Watson	GB	TB	5	3 - 7	4.5
Justin Jefferson	MIN	MIA	5	3 - 8	-
Brock Bowers	LV	KC	5	3 - 7	6.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	LAC	5	3 - 8	7.5
Christian McCaffrey	SF	DEN	5	3 - 8	4.5
Drake London	ATL	NO	5	3 - 7	5.5
Michael Pittman	PIT	CLE	4	2 - 5	3.5
Denzel Boston	CLE	PIT	4	2 - 5	4.5
Josh Downs	IND	WAS	4	2 - 6	5.5
Terry McLaurin	WAS	IND	4	2 - 6	4.5
Romeo Doubs	NE	BUF	4	2 - 6	3.5
Khalil Shakir	BUF	NE	4	2 - 5	3.5
Parker Washington	JAX	CIN	4	2 - 6	5.5
Jakobi Meyers	JAX	CIN	4	2 - 6	3.5
Jake Ferguson	DAL	HOU	4	2 - 6	3.5
Michael Wilson	ARI	NYG	4	2 - 6	5.5
Malik Nabers	NYG	ARI	4	2 - 5	4.5
Dallas Goedert	PHI	LA	4	2 - 6	-
Tucker Kraft	GB	TB	4	2 - 6	4
Malik Washington	MIA	MIN	4	2 - 6	3.5
Greg Dulcich	MIA	MIN	4	2 - 6	2.5
T.J. Hockenson	MIN	MIA	4	2 - 6	4.5
Travis Kelce	KC	LV	4	2 - 6	4.5
Ladd McConkey	LAC	SEA	4	2 - 6	4.5
Jaylen Waddle	DEN	SF	4	2 - 6	4.5
Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF	DEN	4	2 - 6	-
George Kittle	SF	DEN	4	3 - 7	4.5
Sam LaPorta	DET	CAR	4	3 - 6	4.5
Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	CAR	4	2 - 6	4.5
Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	DET	4	2 - 6	4.5
Kyle Pitts	ATL	NO	4	3 - 6	2.5
Bijan Robinson	ATL	NO	4	2 - 6	4.5
Juwan Johnson	NO	ATL	4	2 - 6	3.5

Passing yards

Rushing yards

Receiving yards

Receptions

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