45-54% coin flips props — Week 6
+122 to -117152 props
Every prop the market prices in this range, ranked. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
Prices as of 2026-10-15 22:22 UTC — markets move all day.
| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ty Johnson |  BUF | 15+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 👀7 of last 10 | 75.8% |
 Calvin Ridley |  TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 48%+108 | 👀7 of last 10 | 71.3% |
 Ashton Jeanty |  LV | 25+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 3 straight5/10 | 74.4% |
 Elic Ayomanor | TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 👀7 of last 10 | 75.2% |
 Tre Tucker | LV | 40+ Rec Yards | 49%+104 | 👀4 straight6/10 | 69.6% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |  SEA | Anytime TD | 47%+113 | 👀6 of last 10 | 66.7% |
 Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 50+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 2 of last 10 | 68.8% |
 Josh Cameron |  JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 3 of last 5 | 68.8% |
 Kirk Cousins | LV | 250+ Pass Yards | 49%+104 | 3 of last 10 | 65.4% |
 Josh Allen | BUF | 250+ Pass Yards | 45%+122 | 4 of last 10 | 61.1% |
 Jayden Daniels |  WAS | 40+ Rush Yards | 45%+122 | 5 of last 10 | 59.2% |
 C.J. Stroud |  HOU | 250+ Pass Yards | 53%-113 | 5 of last 10 | 65.7% |
 George Kittle |  SF | Anytime TD | 47%+113 | 5 of last 10 | 59.1% |
 Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 225+ Pass Yards | 53%-113 | 👀8 of last 10 | 64.2% |
 Cooper Kupp | SEA | 25+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 👀6 of last 10 | 56.3% |
 Kayshon Boutte | HOU | 25+ Rec Yards | 49%+104 | 5 of last 10 | 59.2% |
 Bryce Young |  CAR | 250+ Pass Yards | 45%+122 | 5 straight5/10 | 54.8% |
 Emanuel Wilson | SEA | Anytime TD | 45%+122 | 2 of last 10 | 54.7% |
 Parker Washington | JAX | 60+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 6 of last 10 | 62.2% |
 Brock Bowers | LV | 80+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 3 straight3/10 | 59.2% |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Anytime TD | 51%-104 | 4 straight6/10 | 59.7% |
 Malachi Fields |  NYG | 25+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 3 of last 5 | 59.4% |
 Brock Purdy | SF | 20+ Rush Yards | 45%+122 | 👀7 of last 10 | 52.5% |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 250+ Pass Yards | 51%-104 | 5 of last 10 | 57.8% |
 Drake London |  ATL | 90+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 3 straight5/10 | 57.8% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 90+ Rush Yards | 53%-113 | 5 of last 10 | 59.6% |
 Cade Otton |  TB | 4+ Receptions | 46%+117 | 4 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Jaylen Warren |  PIT | 60+ Rush Yards | 49%+104 | 👀3 straight6/10 | 55.5% |
 James Cook III | BUF | 90+ Rush Yards | 52%-108 | 5 of last 10 | 58.2% |
 Brenton Strange | JAX | 40+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 4 of last 10 | 53.1% |
 Colston Loveland |  CHI | 4+ Receptions | 47%+113 | 👀6 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Nico Collins | HOU | 70+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 6 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 70+ Rush Yards | 52%-108 | 3 of last 10 | 57.5% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | Anytime TD | 53%-113 | 4 of last 10 | 58.4% |
 Denzel Boston |  CLE | 55+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 3 of last 5 | 57.1% |
| Parker Washington | JAX | 5+ Receptions | 53%-113 | 6 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Bucky Irving | TB | 65+ Rush Yards | 49%+104 | 4 of last 10 | 53.5% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 100+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 5 of last 10 | 50.3% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 7+ Receptions | 54%-117 | 👀7 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 70+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 5 of last 10 | 50.4% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 30+ Rush Yards | 46%+117 | 4 of last 10 | 48.8% |
 J.K. Dobbins |  DEN | 5+ Rec Yards | 45%+122 | 4 of last 10 | 47.5% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 2+ Receptions | 50%-100 | 2 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Tyler Shough |  NO | 36+ Pass Att | 49%+104 | 0 of last 10 | 51.2% |
 Patrick Mahomes | KC | 225+ Pass Yards | 53%-113 | 👀3 straight7/10 | 55.2% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 2+ Pass TD | 53%-113 | 4 straight5/10 | 54.9% |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 36+ Pass Att | 52%-108 | 0 of last 10 | 53.8% |
 Travis Kelce | KC | 55+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 4 of last 10 | 48.5% |
 Tory Horton | SEA | 1+ Receptions | 51%-104 | 👀3 straight7/10 | 52.5% |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 34+ Pass Att | 50%-100 | 0 of last 10 | 51.2% |
 Jameis Winston | NYG | 32+ Pass Att | 52%-108 | 0 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Germie Bernard | PIT | 40+ Rec Yards | 54%-117 | 1 of last 4 | 54.4% |
 RJ Harvey | DEN | 15+ Rush Yards | 51%-104 | 👀8 of last 10 | 51.2% |
 Bo Nix | DEN | 35+ Pass Att | 49%+104 | 0 of last 10 | 48.8% |
 Luther Burden III | CHI | 50+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 6 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Emeka Egbuka | TB | 4+ Receptions | 53%-113 | 4 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 D'Andre Swift | CHI | 3+ Receptions | 48%+108 | 3 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Sam Darnold | SEA | 225+ Pass Yards | 50%-100 | 4 of last 10 | 49.2% |
 Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 2+ Receptions | 54%-117 | 👀8 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Darnell Washington | PIT | 3+ Receptions | 49%+104 | 4 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Justin Herbert |  LAC | 200+ Pass Yards | 49%+104 | 5 of last 10 | 47.0% |
 Deshaun Watson | CLE | 200+ Pass Yards | 51%-104 | 3 of last 10 | 48.8% |
 Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 34+ Pass Att | 51%-104 | 0 of last 10 | 48.8% |
 Carnell Tate | TEN | 5+ Receptions | 50%-100 | 2 of last 5 | 47.5% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 4+ Receptions | 50%-100 | 3 of last 10 | 47.5% |
| Tanner McKee |  PHI | 200+ Pass Yards | 48%+108 | 2 of last 6 | 45.3% |
 George Holani | SEA | 5+ Carries | 46%+117 | 3 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Bryce Lance | NO | 2+ Receptions | 46%+117 | 1 of last 5 | 42.5% |
 Jahan Dotson | ATL | 25+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 3 of last 10 | 45.8% |
| George Holani | SEA | 15+ Rush Yards | 47%+113 | 3 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Woody Marks | HOU | 3+ Receptions | 52%-108 | 2 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Bijan Robinson | ATL | 90+ Rush Yards | 50%-100 | 4 of last 10 | 45.4% |
 Geno Smith |  NYJ | 225+ Pass Yards | 47%+113 | 3 of last 10 | 42.3% |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 31+ Pass Att | 51%-104 | 0 of last 10 | 46.3% |
 Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 70+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 6 of last 10 | 47.9% |
 Christian Watson |  GB | 80+ Rec Yards | 48%+108 | 👀6 of last 10 | 42.8% |
| Bryce Lance | NO | 15+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 1 of last 5 | 41.7% |
 Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 65+ Rush Yards | 45%+122 | 5 straight5/10 | 39.6% |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 6+ Receptions | 53%-113 | 3 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 15+ Rush Yards | 53%-113 | 3 of last 5 | 47.5% |
 Jonathan Taylor |  IND | 20+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 4 of last 10 | 41.3% |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | 2+ Pass TD | 45%+122 | 5 of last 10 | 38.8% |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 2+ Pass TD | 47%+113 | 3 of last 10 | 40.8% |
 Chris Olave | NO | 80+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 👀7 of last 10 | 44.6% |
 Malik Nabers | NYG | 6+ Receptions | 54%-117 | 4 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Marvin Harrison Jr. | HOU | 25+ Rec Yards | 45%+122 | 👀6 of last 10 | 38.1% |
 Juwan Johnson | NO | 40+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 👀7 of last 10 | 45.8% |
 Kenny Gainwell | TB | 3+ Receptions | 45%+122 | 👀7 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Josh Downs | IND | 50+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 4 of last 10 | 43.5% |
 Kendre Miller | NO | 10+ Carries | 50%-100 | 3 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Christian McCaffrey | SF | 60+ Rush Yards | 52%-108 | 6 of last 10 | 44.4% |
 Cam Ward | TEN | 200+ Pass Yards | 52%-108 | 3 of last 10 | 44.3% |
 Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | 40+ Rec Yards | 49%+104 | 5 of last 10 | 40.6% |
 Devaughn Vele | NO | 45+ Rec Yards | 49%+104 | 5 of last 10 | 40.6% |
 MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 15+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 1 of last 6 | 37.5% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 14+ Carries | 51%-104 | 👀7 of last 10 | 42.5% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 15+ Carries | 51%-104 | 4 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Tucker Kraft | GB | 50+ Rec Yards | 48%+108 | 5 of last 10 | 39.4% |
 Cam Skattebo | NYG | Anytime TD | 49%+104 | 4 of last 10 | 39.8% |
 Jordan Love | GB | 275+ Pass Yards | 49%+104 | 4 of last 10 | 39.5% |
 Omarion Hampton | LAC | 30+ Rush Yards | 54%-117 | 👀5 straight9/10 | 44.2% |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | 40+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 4 of last 10 | 35.8% |
 Matthew Golden | GB | 70+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 3 of last 10 | 36.8% |
 Kalif Raymond | CHI | 25+ Rec Yards | 54%-117 | 6 of last 10 | 43.8% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 18+ Carries | 53%-113 | 4 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Tony Pollard | TEN | 15+ Carries | 53%-113 | 5 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Braelon Allen | NYJ | 3+ Receptions | 53%-113 | 1 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 CeeDee Lamb |  DAL | 80+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 5 of last 10 | 41.3% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 70+ Rush Yards | 48%+108 | 3 of last 10 | 37.1% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 65+ Rush Yards | 53%-113 | 3 of last 10 | 41.5% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 15+ Carries | 54%-117 | 👀7 of last 10 | 42.5% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 60+ Rush Yards | 50%-100 | 5 of last 10 | 38.5% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 75+ Rush Yards | 49%+104 | 3 of last 10 | 37.1% |
 Isaiah Likely | NYG | 50+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 4 of last 10 | 40.6% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 15+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 2 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | 65+ Rec Yards | 53%-113 | 3 of last 10 | 40.4% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 50+ Rush Yards | 47%+113 | 4 of last 10 | 34.4% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 200+ Pass Yards | 48%+108 | 5 of last 10 | 35.2% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | 90+ Rush Yards | 51%-104 | 👀7 of last 10 | 38.2% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 50+ Rush Yards | 49%+104 | 5 of last 10 | 35.6% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 4+ Receptions | 51%-104 | 6 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Colston Loveland | CHI | 40+ Rec Yards | 48%+108 | 4 of last 10 | 34.4% |
 Tyjae Spears | TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 4 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | 225+ Pass Yards | 49%+104 | 4 of last 10 | 34.4% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 90+ Rush Yards | 48%+108 | 3 of last 10 | 32.8% |
 Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 50+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 3 of last 10 | 30.5% |
 Jake Ferguson | DAL | 25+ Rec Yards | 52%-108 | 2 of last 10 | 35.8% |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 70+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 4 of last 10 | 34.6% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | GB | 40+ Rush Yards | 52%-108 | 0 of last 6 | 35.6% |
 Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 20+ Rec Yards | 54%-117 | 5 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Troy Franklin | DEN | 2+ Receptions | 54%-117 | 6 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Jalen Coker | CAR | 60+ Rec Yards | 47%+113 | 4 of last 10 | 30.5% |
 Keaton Mitchell | LAC | 20+ Rush Yards | 49%+104 | 👀6 of last 10 | 32.5% |
 Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 40+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 5 of last 10 | 29.4% |
 George Pickens | DAL | 70+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 3 straight5/10 | 32.9% |
| Kendre Miller | NO | 35+ Rush Yards | 49%+104 | 2 of last 10 | 31.9% |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | Anytime TD | 48%+108 | 3 of last 10 | 30.8% |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 25+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 3 of last 10 | 28.7% |
 Javonte Williams | DAL | 15+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 5 of last 10 | 33.8% |
 Dak Prescott | DAL | 275+ Pass Yards | 53%-113 | 👀4 straight7/10 | 35.5% |
 Courtland Sutton | DEN | 35+ Rec Yards | 46%+117 | 5 of last 10 | 27.5% |
 Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | 40+ Rush Yards | 53%-113 | 5 of last 10 | 34.2% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 55+ Rush Yards | 51%-104 | 6 of last 10 | 31.5% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 60+ Rush Yards | 47%+113 | 4 of last 10 | 26.5% |
| Drake London | ATL | Anytime TD | 46%+117 | 2 of last 10 | 23.9% |
 Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 2+ Pass TD | 51%-104 | 2 of last 10 | 28.8% |
 Xavier Worthy | KC | 50+ Rec Yards | 51%-104 | 4 of last 10 | 28.5% |
 Seth McGowan | IND | 15+ Rush Yards | 51%-104 | 2 of last 5 | 27.5% |
 DK Metcalf | PIT | 50+ Rec Yards | 54%-117 | 3 of last 10 | 25.5% |
 Tyler Warren | IND | 50+ Rec Yards | 50%-100 | 2 of last 10 | 21.5% |
 Keenan Allen | IND | 40+ Rec Yards | 54%-117 | 3 of last 10 | 20.6% |
 Daniel Jones | IND | 2+ Pass TD | 48%+108 | 2 of last 10 | 10.8% |
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