35-44% props — Week 6
+186 to +127138 props
Every prop the market prices in this range, ranked. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
Prices as of 2026-10-15 22:22 UTC — markets move all day.
| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tre Tucker |  LV | 50+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 1 of last 10 | 61.3% |
 Elic Ayomanor |  TEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 4 of last 10 | 59.2% |
 Kirk Cousins | LV | 275+ Pass Yards | 35%+186 | 2 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Josh Allen |  BUF | 40+ Rush Yards | 42%+138 | 4 of last 10 | 62.5% |
 C.J. Stroud |  HOU | 275+ Pass Yards | 40%+150 | 2 of last 10 | 58.0% |
 Jakobi Meyers |  JAX | 40+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 5 of last 10 | 61.9% |
 Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 2+ Pass TD | 41%+144 | 👀7 of last 10 | 58.1% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 250+ Pass Yards | 40%+150 | 👀5 of last 10 | 55.5% |
 Braelon Allen |  NYJ | Anytime TD | 42%+138 | 3 of last 10 | 56.1% |
 Cole Kmet |  CHI | 15+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 👀5 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Josh Cameron | JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 2 of last 5 | 48.1% |
 Brock Purdy |  SF | 3+ Pass TD | 38%+163 | 👀5 of last 10 | 50.9% |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 275+ Pass Yards | 37%+170 | 👀5 of last 10 | 49.5% |
 Parker Washington | JAX | 70+ Rec Yards | 43%+133 | 👀6 of last 10 | 55.4% |
 Brock Bowers | LV | 90+ Rec Yards | 42%+138 | 2 of last 10 | 53.6% |
 Bryce Young |  CAR | 2+ Pass TD | 40%+150 | 👀6 of last 10 | 51.2% |
 Kendre Miller |  NO | Anytime TD | 35%+186 | 3 of last 10 | 45.8% |
 Sam Darnold |  SEA | 2+ Pass TD | 44%+127 | 4 of last 10 | 54.8% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 110+ Rush Yards | 35%+186 | 3 of last 10 | 45.4% |
 Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 15+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 1 of last 10 | 46.3% |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 100+ Rush Yards | 43%+133 | 4 of last 10 | 52.8% |
 Nico Collins | HOU | 90+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 4 of last 10 | 44.1% |
 Kayshon Boutte | HOU | 30+ Rec Yards | 42%+138 | 5 of last 10 | 50.8% |
 Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | Anytime TD | 41%+144 | 5 of last 10 | 49.6% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 8+ Receptions | 39%+156 | 👀5 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Cooper Kupp | SEA | 3+ Receptions | 44%+127 | 3 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Darnell Washington |  PIT | 25+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 5 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Drake London |  ATL | 100+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 4 of last 10 | 52.3% |
 Woody Marks | HOU | Anytime TD | 44%+127 | 3 of last 10 | 52.2% |
 James Cook III | BUF | 110+ Rush Yards | 36%+178 | 4 of last 10 | 44.1% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 110+ Rec Yards | 37%+170 | 4 of last 10 | 44.8% |
 Patrick Mahomes | KC | 250+ Pass Yards | 38%+163 | 👀5 of last 10 | 45.6% |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU | 3+ Receptions | 40%+150 | 4 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 2+ Pass TD | 41%+144 | 3 straight4/10 | 48.4% |
| James Cook III | BUF | 100+ Rush Yards | 44%+127 | 5 of last 10 | 51.1% |
 Brenton Strange | JAX | 50+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 4 of last 10 | 41.5% |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 80+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 5 of last 10 | 50.4% |
 Cade Otton |  TB | 40+ Rec Yards | 37%+170 | 2 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 80+ Rec Yards | 38%+163 | 3 of last 10 | 43.4% |
 Germie Bernard | PIT | 5+ Receptions | 42%+138 | 1 of last 4 | 47.5% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 250+ Pass Yards | 35%+186 | 3 of last 10 | 39.0% |
 George Kittle | SF | 70+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 👀6 of last 10 | 47.9% |
 Luther Burden III | CHI | 60+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 👀6 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 D'Andre Swift | CHI | 18+ Carries | 44%+127 | 3 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | 5+ Receptions | 44%+127 | 👀7 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Devaughn Vele | NO | 5+ Receptions | 44%+127 | 5 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Juwan Johnson | NO | 5+ Receptions | 44%+127 | 3 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 4+ Receptions | 44%+127 | 4 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Christian Watson |  GB | Anytime TD | 42%+138 | 👀7 of last 10 | 45.0% |
 Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 250+ Pass Yards | 44%+127 | 3 of last 10 | 46.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 6+ Receptions | 41%+144 | 2 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Marvin Mims Jr. |  DEN | 2+ Receptions | 37%+170 | 👀6 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Jalon Daniels | TB | 200+ Pass Yards | 37%+170 | 0 of last 3 | 37.3% |
 Tony Pollard | TEN | 60+ Rush Yards | 43%+133 | 👀6 of last 10 | 43.1% |
 Deshaun Watson |  CLE | 225+ Pass Yards | 38%+163 | 2 of last 10 | 37.7% |
 Carnell Tate | TEN | 60+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 1 of last 5 | 43.8% |
 Courtland Sutton | DEN | 4+ Receptions | 38%+163 | 4 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | 50+ Rec Yards | 43%+133 | 1 of last 4 | 42.5% |
 Xavier Worthy | KC | Anytime TD | 37%+170 | 1 of last 10 | 36.1% |
 Matthew Golden | GB | Anytime TD | 38%+163 | 2 of last 10 | 36.7% |
| Christian Watson | GB | 90+ Rec Yards | 38%+163 | 4 of last 10 | 36.6% |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 7+ Receptions | 39%+156 | 3 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Nico Collins | HOU | Anytime TD | 35%+186 | 👀5 of last 10 | 32.7% |
 Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 40%+150 | 👀6 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Geno Smith | NYJ | 250+ Pass Yards | 35%+186 | 2 of last 10 | 31.7% |
 Evan Engram | DEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 4 of last 10 | 40.8% |
 Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 80+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 4 of last 10 | 40.4% |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | 50+ Rec Yards | 37%+170 | 👀7 of last 10 | 33.1% |
 Chris Olave | NO | 90+ Rec Yards | 42%+138 | 5 of last 10 | 38.1% |
 RJ Harvey | DEN | 20+ Rush Yards | 38%+163 | 👀7 of last 10 | 33.8% |
 Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 5+ Receptions | 42%+138 | 4 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Rome Odunze | CHI | 50+ Rec Yards | 43%+133 | 4 of last 10 | 38.5% |
 Christian McCaffrey | SF | 70+ Rush Yards | 39%+156 | 4 of last 10 | 33.8% |
 AJ Barner | SEA | 4+ Receptions | 38%+163 | 2 of last 10 | 32.5% |
 Bijan Robinson | ATL | 100+ Rush Yards | 43%+133 | 3 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Bo Nix | DEN | 2+ Pass TD | 36%+178 | 2 of last 10 | 30.1% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 250+ Pass Yards | 43%+133 | 5 of last 10 | 37.1% |
 Jordan Love | GB | 300+ Pass Yards | 38%+163 | 3 of last 10 | 31.5% |
 Tyler Warren |  IND | 6+ Receptions | 44%+127 | 3 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Jonathan Taylor | IND | 25+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 3 of last 10 | 29.2% |
 Josh Downs | IND | 60+ Rec Yards | 40%+150 | 4 of last 10 | 32.9% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | 50+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 👀5 of last 10 | 27.5% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 6+ Carries | 40%+150 | 👀7 of last 10 | 32.5% |
 Malik Nabers |  NYG | Anytime TD | 35%+186 | 4 of last 10 | 27.4% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 80+ Rush Yards | 37%+170 | 3 of last 10 | 28.9% |
| Matthew Golden | GB | 80+ Rec Yards | 38%+163 | 3 of last 10 | 29.7% |
 Troy Franklin | DEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 3 of last 10 | 30.6% |
 Tyler Shough | NO | 250+ Pass Yards | 42%+138 | 👀8 of last 10 | 33.0% |
 CeeDee Lamb |  DAL | Anytime TD | 43%+133 | 3 of last 10 | 33.9% |
 Cam Skattebo | NYG | 70+ Rush Yards | 38%+163 | 3 of last 10 | 28.7% |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 2+ Pass TD | 43%+133 | 4 of last 10 | 33.7% |
 Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 3+ Receptions | 37%+170 | 3 of last 10 | 27.5% |
 Isaiah Likely | NYG | 60+ Rec Yards | 40%+150 | 4 of last 10 | 30.5% |
 Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 17+ Carries | 42%+138 | 1 of last 10 | 32.5% |
 Jameis Winston | NYG | 250+ Pass Yards | 35%+186 | 4 of last 10 | 25.3% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 80+ Rush Yards | 43%+133 | 3 of last 10 | 33.2% |
| Chris Olave | NO | Anytime TD | 39%+156 | 👀5 of last 10 | 29.1% |
 George Holani | SEA | 15+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 2 of last 10 | 28.7% |
 Darren Waller | CAR | 40+ Rec Yards | 36%+178 | 4 of last 10 | 25.6% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | 100+ Rush Yards | 42%+138 | 👀6 of last 10 | 31.6% |
 Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | 40+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 👀6 of last 10 | 24.4% |
 Zay Flowers | BAL | Anytime TD | 35%+186 | 👀6 of last 10 | 23.9% |
 Colston Loveland | CHI | 50+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 4 of last 10 | 23.5% |
 George Pickens | DAL | Anytime TD | 38%+163 | 2 of last 10 | 26.4% |
| Tyler Warren | IND | Anytime TD | 36%+178 | 3 of last 10 | 24.1% |
| Woody Marks | HOU | 60+ Rush Yards | 36%+178 | 4 of last 10 | 23.8% |
 J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 60+ Rush Yards | 37%+170 | 👀5 of last 10 | 24.6% |
 Dak Prescott | DAL | 300+ Pass Yards | 40%+150 | 4 of last 10 | 27.7% |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | 4+ Receptions | 40%+150 | 2 of last 10 | 27.5% |
 Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 20+ Rush Yards | 40%+150 | 2 of last 5 | 27.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 70+ Rush Yards | 43%+133 | 1 of last 10 | 30.5% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 60+ Rec Yards | 35%+186 | 2 of last 10 | 21.8% |
| George Holani | SEA | 20+ Rush Yards | 37%+170 | 2 of last 10 | 23.8% |
| Evan Engram | DEN | 4+ Receptions | 36%+178 | 3 of last 10 | 22.5% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 100+ Rush Yards | 41%+144 | 0 of last 10 | 26.6% |
 Jalen Coker | CAR | 70+ Rec Yards | 37%+170 | 2 of last 10 | 22.1% |
| George Pickens | DAL | 80+ Rec Yards | 41%+144 | 3 of last 10 | 25.9% |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 80+ Rec Yards | 43%+133 | 3 of last 10 | 27.8% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 25+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 👀6 of last 10 | 28.7% |
 Javonte Williams | DAL | 80+ Rush Yards | 42%+138 | 2 of last 10 | 25.4% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 80+ Rush Yards | 40%+150 | 1 of last 10 | 22.8% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 40+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 👀5 of last 10 | 21.5% |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | 6+ Receptions | 40%+150 | 3 of last 10 | 22.5% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 44%+127 | 👀6 of last 10 | 26.3% |
 Keaton Mitchell |  LAC | 25+ Rush Yards | 37%+170 | 👀5 of last 10 | 19.2% |
 Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | 20+ Rush Yards | 42%+138 | 👀8 of last 10 | 23.8% |
 Rachaad White |  WAS | 25+ Rush Yards | 42%+138 | 4 of last 10 | 23.8% |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | 60+ Rec Yards | 38%+163 | 2 of last 10 | 19.6% |
 Travis Kelce | KC | Anytime TD | 38%+163 | 3 of last 10 | 19.5% |
 Tyjae Spears | TEN | 20+ Rush Yards | 35%+186 | 3 of last 10 | 16.3% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 38%+163 | 2 of last 10 | 18.8% |
 Keenan Allen | IND | 5+ Receptions | 42%+138 | 👀6 of last 10 | 22.5% |
 Daniel Jones | IND | 250+ Pass Yards | 42%+138 | 3 of last 10 | 17.1% |
| Tyler Warren | IND | 60+ Rec Yards | 39%+156 | 1 of last 10 | 13.4% |
 Seth McGowan | IND | 20+ Rush Yards | 39%+156 | 1 of last 5 | 11.3% |
 Bucky Irving | TB | 15+ Rec Yards | 41%+144 | 2 of last 10 | 11.3% |
| Keenan Allen | IND | 50+ Rec Yards | 43%+133 | 1 of last 10 | 11.8% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 41%+144 | 2 of last 10 | 4.0% |
138 props in this band.
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