55-64% props — Week 6
-122 to -178107 props
Every prop the market prices in this range, ranked. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
Prices as of 2026-10-15 22:22 UTC — markets move all day.
| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kenny Gainwell |  TB | 10+ Rush Yards | 57%-133 | 👀8 of last 10 | 83.8% |
 Josh Allen |  BUF | 30+ Rush Yards | 59%-144 | 5 of last 10 | 77.5% |
 Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 40+ Rec Yards | 62%-163 | 4 of last 10 | 75.9% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | Anytime TD | 59%-144 | 👀6 straight8/10 | 72.3% |
 Jayden Daniels |  WAS | 30+ Rush Yards | 63%-170 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 75.8% |
 Javonte Williams |  DAL | Anytime TD | 63%-170 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 75.2% |
 Jaylen Warren |  PIT | 25+ Rec Yards | 57%-133 | 👀6 straight7/10 | 69.2% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | Anytime TD | 62%-163 | 4 of last 10 | 73.7% |
 Kirk Cousins |  LV | 225+ Pass Yards | 62%-163 | 4 straight5/10 | 72.4% |
 MarShawn Lloyd |  GB | Anytime TD | 56%-127 | 2 of last 6 | 65.8% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | Anytime TD | 64%-178 | 5 straight7/10 | 73.6% |
 D'Andre Swift |  CHI | Anytime TD | 61%-156 | 4 of last 10 | 70.3% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 225+ Pass Yards | 60%-150 | 5 of last 10 | 68.9% |
 Kayshon Boutte |  HOU | 2+ Receptions | 64%-178 | 4 straight7/10 | 72.5% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 2+ Pass TD | 58%-138 | 6 of last 10 | 66.2% |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | 15+ Rec Yards | 57%-133 | 5 of last 10 | 63.7% |
 Dalton Schultz | HOU | 25+ Rec Yards | 62%-163 | 7 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Parker Washington |  JAX | 50+ Rec Yards | 64%-178 | 7 of last 10 | 68.9% |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | 80+ Rush Yards | 63%-170 | 5 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Tyjae Spears |  TEN | 10+ Rush Yards | 58%-138 | 6 of last 10 | 62.5% |
 Brock Bowers | LV | 70+ Rec Yards | 61%-156 | 3 straight4/10 | 65.3% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 25+ Rush Yards | 57%-133 | 6 of last 10 | 61.3% |
 James Cook III | BUF | 80+ Rush Yards | 62%-163 | 6 of last 10 | 66.1% |
 Chris Godwin Jr. | TB | 25+ Rec Yards | 57%-133 | 👀5 straight8/10 | 60.8% |
 Bryce Young |  CAR | 225+ Pass Yards | 60%-150 | 5 straight5/10 | 63.7% |
 Ashton Jeanty | LV | Anytime TD | 55%-122 | 2 of last 10 | 58.5% |
 Nico Collins | HOU | 60+ Rec Yards | 62%-163 | 6 of last 10 | 64.6% |
 Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 60+ Rush Yards | 64%-178 | 3 of last 10 | 66.5% |
| James Cook III | BUF | Anytime TD | 59%-144 | 4 straight6/10 | 61.5% |
 Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 57%-133 | 👀8 of last 10 | 58.8% |
 Luther Burden III | CHI | 4+ Receptions | 61%-156 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 62.5% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba |  SEA | 90+ Rec Yards | 55%-122 | 👀7 of last 10 | 55.8% |
 Germie Bernard | PIT | 4+ Receptions | 62%-163 | 2 of last 4 | 62.5% |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | 4+ Receptions | 62%-163 | 3 of last 10 | 62.5% |
 Marvin Harrison Jr. | HOU | 15+ Rec Yards | 61%-156 | 6 of last 10 | 61.3% |
 George Kittle |  SF | 60+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 👀7 of last 10 | 56.3% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 80+ Rec Yards | 63%-170 | 👀8 of last 10 | 61.6% |
 George Holani | SEA | 10+ Rush Yards | 64%-178 | 5 of last 10 | 62.5% |
 Travis Kelce | KC | 50+ Rec Yards | 55%-122 | 4 of last 10 | 53.5% |
 Tony Pollard | TEN | 50+ Rush Yards | 56%-127 | 👀7 of last 10 | 54.4% |
 Gunnar Helm | TEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 58%-138 | 3 of last 10 | 56.3% |
 Sam Darnold | SEA | 30+ Pass Att | 56%-127 | 0 of last 10 | 53.8% |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 15+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 4 of last 10 | 53.8% |
 Evan Engram |  DEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 64%-178 | 6 of last 10 | 61.3% |
 Courtland Sutton | DEN | 3+ Receptions | 61%-156 | 6 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Troy Franklin | DEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 👀3 straight7/10 | 52.5% |
| George Holani | SEA | 2+ Receptions | 56%-127 | 2 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 2+ Receptions | 56%-127 | 4 straight4/10 | 52.5% |
 Carnell Tate | TEN | 50+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 2 of last 5 | 52.5% |
 AJ Barner | SEA | 25+ Rec Yards | 55%-122 | 5 of last 10 | 50.8% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 19+ Completions | 57%-133 | 5 of last 10 | 52.5% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 2+ Receptions | 57%-133 | 4 of last 10 | 52.5% |
| Tanner McKee |  PHI | 175+ Pass Yards | 62%-163 | 2 of last 6 | 57.3% |
 Bijan Robinson |  ATL | 25+ Rec Yards | 59%-144 | 5 of last 10 | 54.2% |
 Justin Herbert |  LAC | 175+ Pass Yards | 64%-178 | 7 of last 10 | 59.1% |
 Christian Watson | GB | 70+ Rec Yards | 55%-122 | 6 of last 10 | 49.6% |
 Isaiah Likely |  NYG | 5+ Receptions | 63%-170 | 5 of last 10 | 57.5% |
| AJ Barner | SEA | 3+ Receptions | 59%-144 | 6 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 5+ Receptions | 59%-144 | 4 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Rome Odunze | CHI | 40+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 👀5 straight8/10 | 49.4% |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | 80+ Rush Yards | 61%-156 | 3 straight7/10 | 53.8% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | HOU | 2+ Receptions | 55%-122 | 5 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 225+ Pass Yards | 55%-122 | 3 straight6/10 | 47.3% |
 Mike Evans | SF | Anytime TD | 56%-127 | 5 of last 10 | 47.9% |
 Michael Mayer | LV | 25+ Rec Yards | 57%-133 | 5 of last 10 | 48.8% |
 Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 4+ Receptions | 61%-156 | 4 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Josh Downs |  IND | 40+ Rec Yards | 63%-170 | 5 of last 10 | 54.4% |
 Devaughn Vele |  NO | 40+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 6 of last 10 | 46.9% |
 Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 2+ Receptions | 62%-163 | 5 of last 10 | 52.5% |
 Cam Skattebo | NYG | 2+ Receptions | 57%-133 | 👀7 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | 25+ Rec Yards | 59%-144 | 6 of last 10 | 49.2% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 60+ Rush Yards | 55%-122 | 5 straight5/10 | 44.5% |
 Geno Smith |  NYJ | 200+ Pass Yards | 64%-178 | 5 of last 10 | 52.8% |
 Kaelon Black | SF | 20+ Rush Yards | 60%-150 | 2 of last 5 | 48.8% |
 Matthew Golden | GB | 60+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 3 of last 10 | 44.6% |
| Drake Maye | NE | 225+ Pass Yards | 59%-144 | 5 of last 10 | 47.5% |
 Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 60+ Rush Yards | 59%-144 | 4 of last 10 | 46.9% |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | 50+ Rush Yards | 63%-170 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 50.6% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 2+ Pass TD | 56%-127 | 4 of last 10 | 43.3% |
 Colston Loveland | CHI | 35+ Rec Yards | 56%-127 | 4 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 Kimani Vidal | LAC | 15+ Rush Yards | 56%-127 | 5 of last 10 | 42.5% |
 J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 40+ Rush Yards | 63%-170 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 49.2% |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA | 15+ Rec Yards | 63%-170 | 5 of last 10 | 48.8% |
 Tyler Shough | NO | 225+ Pass Yards | 57%-133 | 👀8 of last 10 | 42.5% |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | 80+ Rush Yards | 61%-156 | 👀8 of last 10 | 46.1% |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | 200+ Pass Yards | 55%-122 | 4 of last 10 | 39.8% |
 Jordan Love | GB | 2+ Pass TD | 63%-170 | 5 straight7/10 | 47.4% |
 Woody Marks | HOU | 40+ Rush Yards | 63%-170 | 6 of last 10 | 46.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 40+ Rec Yards | 58%-138 | 4 of last 10 | 41.9% |
 Rachaad White | WAS | 20+ Rush Yards | 55%-122 | 👀7 of last 10 | 38.8% |
 Dak Prescott | DAL | 2+ Pass TD | 59%-144 | 4 of last 10 | 42.7% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 61%-156 | 6 of last 10 | 43.8% |
 Jalen Coker | CAR | 50+ Rec Yards | 58%-138 | 5 of last 10 | 40.6% |
| Evan Engram | DEN | 3+ Receptions | 55%-122 | 4 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Jalen Coker | CAR | 5+ Receptions | 55%-122 | 3 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Drake Maye | NE | 2+ Pass TD | 58%-138 | 5 of last 10 | 40.0% |
 Kendre Miller | NO | 30+ Rush Yards | 59%-144 | 4 of last 10 | 40.8% |
 Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 60+ Rush Yards | 59%-144 | 2 of last 10 | 40.5% |
 Bo Nix | DEN | 21+ Completions | 56%-127 | 6 of last 10 | 37.5% |
 Malik Nabers | NYG | 60+ Rec Yards | 63%-170 | 6 of last 10 | 43.8% |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 60+ Rush Yards | 64%-178 | 4 of last 10 | 44.4% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | Anytime TD | 60%-150 | 5 of last 10 | 39.9% |
 Jonathan Taylor | IND | 80+ Rush Yards | 61%-156 | 4 of last 10 | 39.6% |
 DK Metcalf | PIT | 4+ Receptions | 59%-144 | 6 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | 50+ Rush Yards | 58%-138 | 6 of last 10 | 36.5% |
 Daniel Jones | IND | 225+ Pass Yards | 59%-144 | 4 of last 10 | 24.8% |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | 10+ Rec Yards | 55%-122 | 3 of last 10 | 13.8% |
107 props in this band.
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