NFL Receiving Yards Props & Projections — Week 4
Every receiver, back, and tight end on this week's board, with our projected receiving yards next to the book's line, from 10,000 simulations per game. Updated 2026-10-02.
| Player | Team | Opp | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | GB | TB | 83 | 45 - 131 | 66 | over |
| Nico Collins | HOU | DAL | 78 | 42 - 125 | 74 | - |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | JAX | 73 | 42 - 113 | 81.5 | - |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | LAC | 72 | 39 - 113 | 92.5 | under |
| Puka Nacua | LA | PHI | 71 | 39 - 111 | 78.5 | - |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | CAR | 70 | 39 - 110 | 77.5 | - |
| Zay Flowers | BAL | TEN | 69 | 38 - 109 | 67.5 | - |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | HOU | 67 | 36 - 105 | 76.5 | - |
| George Pickens | DAL | HOU | 63 | 34 - 100 | 67.5 | - |
| Trey McBride | ARI | NYG | 63 | 35 - 97 | 66.5 | - |
| Chris Olave | NO | ATL | 63 | 34 - 100 | 85.5 | under |
| Tucker Kraft | GB | TB | 61 | 33 - 96 | 41.5 | over |
| Rashee Rice | KC | LV | 61 | 32 - 95 | 54.5 | - |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | IND | 60 | 32 - 95 | 51.5 | - |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | BAL | 56 | 30 - 89 | 37.5 | over |
| Parker Washington | JAX | CIN | 56 | 30 - 90 | 74 | under |
| Jameson Williams | DET | CAR | 55 | 28 - 88 | 51.5 | - |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | DET | 55 | 29 - 87 | 70.5 | under |
| Drake London | ATL | NO | 55 | 29.8 - 89 | 78.5 | under |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | PIT | 54 | 30 - 86 | 27.5 | over |
| Michael Wilson | ARI | NYG | 54 | 28 - 85 | 57.5 | - |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | ARI | 53 | 27 - 85 | 54.5 | - |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | SF | 53 | 27 - 85 | 57.5 | - |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ | CHI | 52 | 28 - 83 | 75.5 | under |
| Tyler Warren | IND | WAS | 48 | 26 - 77 | 48.5 | - |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | PIT | 46 | 24 - 73 | 89 | under |
| Keenan Allen | IND | WAS | 46 | 25 - 73 | 35.5 | over |
| Brock Bowers | LV | KC | 46 | 25 - 73 | 73.5 | under |
| Sam LaPorta | DET | CAR | 46 | 26 - 71 | 48.5 | - |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | JAX | 45 | 23 - 74 | 62.5 | under |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU | DAL | 45 | 25 - 70 | 40.5 | - |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA | MIN | 45 | 25 - 71 | 29.5 | over |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC | SEA | 45 | 23 - 73 | 33.5 | over |
| Juwan Johnson | NO | ATL | 45 | 24 - 71 | 39.5 | - |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI | NYG | 44 | 22 - 73.2 | 33.5 | over |
| George Kittle | SF | DEN | 44 | 24.8 - 70 | 64.5 | under |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | DEN | 43 | 24 - 67 | 40.5 | - |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX | CIN | 42 | 23 - 67 | 39.5 | - |
| Travis Kelce | KC | LV | 42 | 22 - 67 | 47.5 | - |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC | SEA | 42 | 22 - 67 | 46.5 | - |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | CLE | 41 | 20 - 66 | 48.5 | - |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX | CIN | 41 | 19 - 67 | 29 | over |
| Romeo Doubs | NE | BUF | 40 | 20 - 64 | 40 | - |
| Jordan Addison | MIN | MIA | 40 | 19 - 66 | 55.5 | under |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | NO | 40 | 21 - 63 | 28 | over |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF | NE | 39 | 20 - 61 | 52.5 | under |
| Rome Odunze | CHI | NYJ | 39 | 18 - 64 | 31.5 | - |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU | DAL | 39 | 20 - 61 | 24.5 | over |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | SF | 39 | 18 - 63 | 38.5 | - |
| Josh Downs | IND | WAS | 38 | 20 - 60 | 62.5 | under |
| Darius Slayton | IND | WAS | 38 | 18 - 63 | 16.5 | over |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS | IND | 38 | 21 - 58 | 43.5 | - |
| Luther Burden III | CHI | NYJ | 38 | 20 - 60 | 45.5 | - |
| Brenton Strange | JAX | CIN | 38 | 21 - 59 | 34.5 | - |
| Matthew Golden | GB | TB | 38 | 19 - 60 | 57.5 | under |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB | GB | 38 | 17.8 - 64 | 38.5 | - |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN | BAL | 37 | 18 - 64 | 6.5 | over |
| Davante Adams | LA | PHI | 36 | 17 - 60 | 65.5 | under |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | LV | 35 | 17 - 58 | 33.5 | - |
| Tre Tucker | LV | KC | 35 | 17 - 57 | 38.5 | - |
What drives a receiving yards number
Targets are the currency. A receiver seeing 10 looks a game has chances a 4-target player never gets, so target share within the offense is the first input. From there it is depth of target and run-after-catch: a deep threat can post a big line on three catches while a possession slot receiver needs eight.
The matchup layers on top: coverage quality, whether the defense funnels throws away from its best corner, and the same game script that rules every market. A trailing offense throws more, which lifts every pass catcher at once; a leading one milks the clock and quietly caps them all.
How to read the table
The projection is the median of 10,000 simulated games and the likely range is the middle half of outcomes. Receiving carries real week-to-week variance, since target distribution swings with coverage looks and script, so treat the range as the honest statement of what is normal and the median as the center of gravity, not a promise.
Common questions
- What are NFL receiving yards props?
- An over/under on how many receiving yards a player totals in one game. Any player who catches passes can have one posted: receivers, tight ends, and backs.
- What affects receiving yards the most?
- Target volume, depth of target, and the matchup. A high target share is the foundation; where those targets happen and who is covering decide what they turn into.
- How are these receiving projections made?
- We simulate each game 10,000 times with target shares, efficiency, and game flow varying run to run, then show the median and the p25 to p75 range next to the current book line.
- Why does a running back show up in receiving yards?
- Because receptions count the same from any position. Pass-catching backs can carry meaningful receiving lines, especially in offenses that use them as an outlet against the blitz.