NFL Anytime Touchdown Props & Projections — Week 4
Every player on this week's board with a meaningful chance to score, ranked by our simulated anytime touchdown probability next to the book's implied chance. One number, one question: does he find the end zone? Updated 2026-10-02.
| Player | Pos | Team | Opp | Our probability | Book implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | HOU | 81.3% | 56.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | DEN | 77.8% | 66.4% |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | PHI | 76.3% | 55% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | CAR | 73.3% | 77.3% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | BUF | 73% | 41.7% |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | WAS | 71% | 76.2% |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | NE | 69.6% | 56.5% |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | DAL | 66.6% | 60.8% |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | LV | 65.7% | 63.5% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | IND | 65.5% | 49.5% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | CIN | 65.4% | 50% |
| Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | ARI | 64.5% | 58.2% |
| Davante Adams | WR | LA | PHI | 64.2% | 47.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | SEA | 61.5% | 47.6% |
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | NYJ | 61.3% | 60.6% |
| Chase Brown | RB | CIN | JAX | 60.7% | 63.6% |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | LA | 59.6% | - |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | NYG | 59% | 40% |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | TEN | 58.9% | 68.8% |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | NO | 57.2% | 69.7% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | CAR | 56.9% | 55.6% |
| Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | TB | 56.3% | 29.4% |
| Jaylen Wright | RB | MIA | MIN | 54.3% | 23.8% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | LV | 53.8% | 40% |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | LA | PHI | 53.7% | 23.4% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | JAX | CIN | 51.7% | 26% |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | DET | 51.5% | 57.5% |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | KC | 51.5% | 34.5% |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | NE | BUF | 50.9% | 27.4% |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | NO | 50.9% | 42.6% |
| James Cook | RB | BUF | NE | 50.6% | 56.9% |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | SF | 50.4% | 45.5% |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | LA | 50% | 37.7% |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | DEN | 49.7% | 41.7% |
| Kenny Gainwell | RB | TB | GB | 49.7% | 20% |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | MIA | 49.2% | 19.6% |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | SF | 49.2% | 31.3% |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | LA | 47.8% | 48.3% |
| Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | KC | 46.9% | 57.5% |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | NYG | 46.1% | 26.7% |
| Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | HOU | 44.8% | 24.4% |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | PIT | 44.7% | 44% |
| Woody Marks | RB | HOU | DAL | 44.7% | 33.3% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | LAC | 44.7% | 53.9% |
| Bam Knight | RB | ARI | NYG | 44.3% | 5.9% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | WR | CIN | JAX | 44.2% | 53.5% |
| Aaron Jones | RB | MIN | MIA | 44.1% | 62.3% |
| Isaac TeSlaa | WR | DET | CAR | 42.4% | 17.9% |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | CIN | 41.1% | 41.2% |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | CLE | 41.1% | 33.9% |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | NE | 40.9% | 37.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | BUF | 40.8% | 33.3% |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | DEN | 40.5% | 38.5% |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | NYJ | 40.1% | 59.8% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | BUF | 39.6% | 28.2% |
| Justin Fields | QB | KC | LV | 39.5% | - |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | TB | 38.7% | 39.2% |
| Darren Waller | TE | CAR | DET | 38.6% | 28.2% |
| AJ Barner | TE | SEA | LAC | 38.3% | 27% |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | PHI | 37% | 43.5% |
How the price maps to a probability
The odds attached to a player are a probability in disguise. A price like plus 150 says the book thinks the score is somewhat unlikely; minus 130 says more likely than not. Convert any price to an implied percentage and you can hold it against our simulated chance in the table above. Where the two disagree is where the market gets interesting.
What makes a player likely to score
Role first: a back who gets the handoff at the 3-yard line and a receiver who owns the corner of the end zone live in a different tier than players who work between the twenties. Red zone usage is where touchdowns actually happen, and plain volume adds swings at the end zone all game. A player with both a red zone role and heavy volume is the classic high-probability scorer.
How the probability is estimated
Same engine as the yardage markets. We simulate the game 10,000 times and count how often each player scores; that share is his anytime probability. It is a descriptive number, shown next to the book's implied chance so you can spot the gaps yourself.
Common questions
- What does anytime touchdown mean?
- A bet that a specific player scores a touchdown at any point in the game, rushing or receiving. One score at any time cashes it. Full rules and edge cases are in our anytime touchdown definition guide.
- How do anytime touchdown odds work?
- The price is an implied probability in disguise. Convert any odds to a percentage and compare it to our simulated chance: that gap is the whole conversation.
- What makes a player likely to score a touchdown?
- Role and red zone usage most of all. Backs with short-yardage carries and receivers targeted inside the 20 have the best scoring equity, and heavy overall volume adds more chances on top.
- How is the scoring probability estimated?
- We simulate the game 10,000 times and track how often a player scores across all runs. The share of runs where he found the end zone is his estimated probability.