NFL Rushing Yards Props & Projections — Week 4
Every back on this week's board, with our projected rushing yards next to the book's line, from 10,000 simulations per game. Updated 2026-10-02.
| Player | Team | Opp | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | DAL | HOU | 104 | 64 - 153 | 60 | over |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | NO | 97 | 62 - 140 | 86.5 | over |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI | NYG | 91 | 58 - 132 | 66.5 | over |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | WAS | 89 | 58 - 126 | 90.5 | - |
| Jadarian Price | SEA | LAC | 86 | 52 - 130 | 42.5 | over |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | BUF | 84 | 53 - 120 | 31.5 | over |
| David Montgomery | HOU | DAL | 81 | 50 - 119 | 44.5 | over |
| Derrick Henry | BAL | TEN | 80 | 51 - 115 | 96.5 | under |
| Aaron Jones | MIN | MIA | 80 | 51 - 117 | 67.5 | over |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | SF | 80 | 51 - 115 | 59.5 | over |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | CAR | 78 | 50 - 111 | 96.5 | under |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC | LV | 77 | 48 - 113 | 86 | - |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC | SEA | 76 | 47 - 114 | 45.5 | over |
| James Cook | BUF | NE | 75 | 48 - 109 | 87.5 | under |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS | IND | 74 | 46 - 109 | 62.5 | over |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA | MIN | 71 | 44 - 104 | 28.5 | over |
| Kyren Williams | LA | PHI | 69 | 44 - 99 | 59.5 | - |
| Bucky Irving | TB | GB | 60 | 36 - 93 | 54.5 | - |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | LA | 59 | 36 - 89 | 69.5 | under |
| Kaleb Johnson | GB | TB | 57 | 35 - 86 | 30.5 | over |
| Tony Pollard | TEN | BAL | 54 | 34 - 81 | 47.5 | - |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR | DET | 54 | 33 - 82 | 66.5 | under |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | DEN | 53 | 32 - 82 | 65 | under |
| Chase Brown | CIN | JAX | 52 | 31 - 78 | 64 | under |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE | BUF | 50 | 33 - 72 | 40 | over |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | CLE | 46 | 29 - 68 | 84 | under |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | PIT | 46 | 28 - 70 | 43.5 | - |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG | ARI | 46 | 28 - 67 | 62.5 | under |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | KC | 46 | 28 - 71 | 59.5 | under |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | CIN | 45 | 27 - 67 | 53.5 | - |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | CIN | 41 | 26 - 58 | 20 | over |
| Blake Corum | LA | PHI | 39 | 25 - 56 | 41.5 | - |
| Woody Marks | HOU | DAL | 38 | 23 - 59 | 34.5 | - |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | ATL | 37 | 23 - 57 | 37 | - |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | MIA | 33 | 22 - 45 | 20.5 | over |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI | NYG | 31 | 19 - 46 | 18.5 | over |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB | GB | 31 | 19 - 44 | 16 | over |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 29 | 18 - 42 | 31.5 | - |
| Brian Robinson | ATL | NO | 29 | 18 - 43 | 30.5 | - |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | LAC | 28 | 17 - 42 | 44.5 | under |
| Malik Willis | MIA | MIN | 27 | 18 - 38 | 28.5 | - |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA | MIN | 26 | 16 - 38 | 25 | - |
| Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 25 | 15 - 36 | 26.5 | - |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ | CHI | 25 | 15 - 36 | 56.5 | under |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | SF | 25 | 15 - 39 | 16.5 | - |
| Kendre Miller | NO | ATL | 25 | 15 - 36 | 26.5 | - |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | IND | 24 | 16 - 34 | 26.5 | - |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | SEA | 24 | 16 - 35 | 21.5 | - |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | TEN | 23 | 15 - 33 | 31.5 | - |
| Emmett Johnson | KC | LV | 23 | 14 - 35 | 16.5 | - |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LA | 22 | 13 - 32 | 25.5 | - |
| Sione Vaki | DET | CAR | 22 | 13 - 32 | 9.5 | over |
| Tank Bigsby | PHI | LA | 21 | 13 - 31 | 11.5 | - |
| AJ Dillon | CAR | DET | 20 | 12 - 30 | 13.5 | - |
| Travis Homer | PIT | CLE | 6 | 3 - 8 | -0.5 | - |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE | PIT | 4 | 3 - 7 | 2.5 | - |
| Breece Hall | NYJ | CHI | 77 | 48 - 112 | - | - |
| D'Andre Swift | CHI | NYJ | 76 | 49 - 108 | - | - |
| Kyle Monangai | CHI | NYJ | 43 | 28 - 62 | - | - |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG | ARI | 43 | 27 - 64 | - | - |
What drives a rushing yards number
Carries first. A workhorse back getting 20 handoffs has a ceiling a committee back at 10 simply does not, so the first question is always how much of the backfield belongs to this player. Role changes, injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, and short-yardage or two-minute packages all move the carry count before talent even enters it.
Then efficiency and script. Yards per carry rides on the offensive line, the box counts the offense sees, and the defense's run fits. Game script is the quiet multiplier: a team protecting a lead runs the clock out through its back, while a team down two scores abandons the run entirely. The same back can project 30 yards apart in the two versions of that afternoon.
How to read the table
The projection is the median of 10,000 simulated games and the likely range is the middle half of outcomes. Rushing is the streakiest yardage market, since one 40-yard breakaway can carry a whole line, so expect wider ranges here than passing. A book line sitting outside the likely range is the pattern worth a second look.
Common questions
- What are NFL rushing yards props?
- An over/under on how many rushing yards a player totals in one game. Receiving yards do not count toward it; only carries do.
- What affects rushing yards the most?
- Carry volume, then efficiency, then game script. A back on a team protecting a lead gets extra clock-killing carries, while a back on a trailing team can get phased out entirely.
- Why are rushing projections so volatile?
- Because one long run changes everything. A back can turn 15 quiet carries into a big day with a single breakaway, which is why our likely ranges are honest about the spread rather than pretending one number is certain.
- How are these rushing projections made?
- We simulate each game 10,000 times with the carry share, efficiency, matchup, and game flow varying run to run, then show the median and the p25 to p75 range next to the current book line.