NFL Passing Yards Props & Projections — Week 4
Every quarterback on this week's board, with our projected passing yards next to the book's line. The projection comes from simulating each game 10,000 times; the range shows where most outcomes landed. Updated 2026-10-02.
| Player | Team | Opp | Projection | Likely range | Book line | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA | PHI | 258 | 181 - 337 | 249.5 | - |
| Jared Goff | DET | CAR | 256 | 181 - 333 | 263.5 | - |
| Daniel Jones | IND | WAS | 251 | 177.8 - 322 | 225.5 | over |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | HOU | 250 | 176 - 326 | 266.5 | - |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 243 | 171 - 317 | 236.5 | - |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CIN | 242 | 171 - 314 | 260.5 | - |
| Jordan Love | GB | TB | 237 | 169 - 306 | 245.5 | - |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | NYG | 236 | 166 - 307 | 232.5 | - |
| Bo Nix | DEN | SF | 233 | 162 - 304 | 223 | - |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | DAL | 231 | 165 - 300 | 245.5 | - |
| Brock Purdy | SF | DEN | 228 | 160 - 296 | 236.5 | - |
| Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 223 | 160 - 287 | 231.5 | - |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | JAX | 223 | 157 - 292 | 267.5 | under |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | SEA | 219 | 153 - 287 | 199.5 | - |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 216 | 154 - 280 | 242.5 | under |
| Tyler Shough | NO | ATL | 209 | 147 - 271 | 256.5 | under |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LA | 203 | 143 - 263 | 188.5 | - |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | TEN | 202 | 144 - 259 | 217.5 | - |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | CHI | 202 | 143 - 265.2 | 227.5 | under |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | NO | 202 | 143 - 264 | 224.5 | under |
| Cam Ward | TEN | BAL | 197 | 135 - 258 | 185.5 | - |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | ARI | 197 | 140 - 255 | 210.5 | - |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DET | 187 | 130 - 248 | 248.5 | under |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CLE | 186 | 129 - 245 | 265.5 | under |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | IND | 180 | 128 - 233 | 214.5 | under |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | PIT | 171 | 118 - 226 | 256.5 | under |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | KC | 157 | 109 - 209 | 222.5 | under |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | GB | 150 | 105 - 199 | 172.5 | under |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | NYJ | 142 | 99 - 189 | 201.5 | under |
| Malik Willis | MIA | MIN | 111 | 99 - 125 | 168.5 | under |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | MIA | 242 | 172 - 313 | - | - |
| Drew Lock | SEA | LAC | 136 | 94 - 182 | - | - |
What drives a passing yards number
Two things above all: volume and efficiency. A quarterback throwing 40 times has a far higher ceiling than one throwing 25, and a quarterback averaging 8 yards a throw is in a different neighborhood than one averaging 6 on the same attempts. Volume comes from game flow, since teams that trail throw to catch up, teams with a shaky run game lean on the pass, and fast offenses simply run more plays.
Then comes the matchup. A pass defense that gives up chunk plays lifts the number; one that smothers receivers pulls it down. Game script caps it from the other side: a heavy favorite can build a lead and hand the ball off all fourth quarter, quietly limiting its quarterback's yards.
How to read the table
The projection column is the median of 10,000 simulated games; the likely range is the middle half of those outcomes (p25 to p75). Drop the book line on top: below our median leans over, above it leans under. Check the range before you get excited. A line near the edge of a tight range is a cleaner picture than one inside a wide range where almost anything is possible.
Common questions
- What are NFL passing yards props?
- An over/under on how many yards a quarterback throws for in one game. The book posts a number and you decide whether the real total lands over or under it.
- What affects a quarterback's passing yards the most?
- Volume and efficiency: how many times he throws and how many yards he gets per throw. The opposing pass defense and the game script shape both, since trailing teams throw more and leading teams run the clock.
- How are these passing yards projections made?
- We simulate each game 10,000 times so attempts, efficiency, matchup, and game flow all vary run to run. The table shows the median and the p25 to p75 range of those outcomes next to the current book line.
- Does a projection above the line mean the over hits?
- No. It means the projection leans over. The width of the likely range tells you how much certainty sits behind that lean, and a wide range means the outcome is genuinely volatile.