75-84% props — Week 6
-300 to -52570 props
Every prop the market prices in this range, ranked. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
Prices as of 2026-10-15 22:22 UTC — markets move all day.
| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |  BUF | 20+ Rush Yards | 76%-317 | 8 of last 10 | 89.5% |
 Jakobi Meyers |  JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 79%-376 | 👀73 straight10/10 | 87.1% |
 RJ Harvey |  DEN | 3+ Carries | 81%-426 | 9 of last 10 | 87.5% |
 Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 1+ Pass TD | 77%-335 | 3 straight8/10 | 82.5% |
 Kirk Cousins |  LV | 200+ Pass Yards | 75%-300 | 4 straight5/10 | 78.2% |
 Brenton Strange | JAX | 15+ Rec Yards | 84%-525 | 👀18 straight10/10 | 84.5% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 60+ Rush Yards | 81%-426 | 5 straight6/10 | 81.4% |
 Chuba Hubbard |  CAR | 50+ Rush Yards | 75%-300 | 3 straight4/10 | 75.4% |
 James Cook III | BUF | 60+ Rush Yards | 80%-400 | 4 straight8/10 | 79.7% |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 175+ Pass Yards | 84%-525 | 4 straight7/10 | 82.3% |
 Sam Darnold |  SEA | 1+ Pass TD | 79%-376 | 3 straight6/10 | 77.5% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 175+ Pass Yards | 80%-400 | 👀12 straight10/10 | 78.5% |
 Nico Collins |  HOU | 40+ Rec Yards | 81%-426 | 👀12 straight10/10 | 78.2% |
 Rachaad White |  WAS | 10+ Rush Yards | 79%-376 | 👀9 straight9/10 | 76.3% |
 Brock Bowers | LV | 50+ Rec Yards | 80%-400 | 3 straight6/10 | 76.9% |
 C.J. Stroud | HOU | 200+ Pass Yards | 81%-426 | 7 of last 10 | 77.8% |
 Drake London |  ATL | 60+ Rec Yards | 77%-335 | 3 straight6/10 | 73.8% |
 Tony Pollard |  TEN | 30+ Rush Yards | 83%-488 | 👀11 straight10/10 | 79.4% |
 George Kittle |  SF | 40+ Rec Yards | 77%-335 | 7 of last 10 | 72.9% |
 Tetairoa McMillan | CAR | 40+ Rec Yards | 79%-376 | 6 of last 10 | 73.8% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 60+ Rec Yards | 79%-376 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 73.6% |
 AJ Barner | SEA | 2+ Receptions | 78%-355 | 8 of last 10 | 72.5% |
 Bryce Young | CAR | 175+ Pass Yards | 84%-525 | 5 straight7/10 | 77.9% |
| Tanner McKee |  PHI | 150+ Pass Yards | 75%-300 | 2 of last 6 | 68.9% |
 Patrick Mahomes | KC | 175+ Pass Yards | 80%-400 | 👀5 straight9/10 | 73.3% |
 Courtland Sutton | DEN | 2+ Receptions | 80%-400 | 8 of last 10 | 72.5% |
 Aaron Rodgers |  PIT | 1+ Pass TD | 80%-400 | 3 straight8/10 | 72.5% |
 Kendre Miller |  NO | 15+ Rush Yards | 84%-525 | 6 of last 10 | 76.3% |
 Devaughn Vele | NO | 25+ Rec Yards | 76%-317 | 👀9 straight9/10 | 68.1% |
 Christian McCaffrey | SF | 40+ Rush Yards | 76%-317 | 3 straight8/10 | 68.1% |
 Christian Watson |  GB | 40+ Rec Yards | 81%-426 | 6 straight8/10 | 72.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 5+ Receptions | 81%-426 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 72.5% |
 Mike Evans | SF | 50+ Rec Yards | 76%-317 | 4 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 25+ Rush Yards | 83%-488 | 👀28 straight10/10 | 73.8% |
 Bijan Robinson | ATL | 60+ Rush Yards | 80%-400 | 👀5 straight9/10 | 70.4% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 175+ Pass Yards | 79%-376 | 6 of last 10 | 68.8% |
 Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 3+ Receptions | 78%-355 | 5 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Deshaun Watson |  CLE | 1+ Pass TD | 78%-355 | 5 straight8/10 | 67.5% |
 Isaiah Likely |  NYG | 25+ Rec Yards | 83%-488 | 8 of last 10 | 71.9% |
 Bo Nix | DEN | 30+ Pass Att | 75%-300 | 0 of last 10 | 63.7% |
 Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 40+ Rush Yards | 81%-426 | 5 of last 10 | 69.4% |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 76%-317 | 7 of last 10 | 64.2% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 1+ Pass TD | 75%-300 | 5 straight8/10 | 62.5% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 30+ Rush Yards | 77%-335 | 👀28 straight10/10 | 64.2% |
| Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 25+ Rec Yards | 77%-335 | 6 of last 10 | 64.2% |
 Cam Skattebo | NYG | 40+ Rush Yards | 76%-317 | 3 straight8/10 | 63.1% |
 Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 40+ Rush Yards | 80%-400 | 5 straight5/10 | 66.9% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 25+ Pass Att | 82%-456 | 0 of last 10 | 68.8% |
 Geno Smith |  NYJ | 175+ Pass Yards | 77%-335 | 7 of last 10 | 64.0% |
 Matthew Golden | GB | 40+ Rec Yards | 77%-335 | 5 of last 10 | 63.5% |
 Evan Engram | DEN | 2+ Receptions | 76%-317 | 6 of last 10 | 62.5% |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 11+ Carries | 76%-317 | 3 straight8/10 | 62.5% |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 175+ Pass Yards | 82%-456 | 6 straight9/10 | 68.0% |
 CeeDee Lamb |  DAL | 50+ Rec Yards | 80%-400 | 6 of last 10 | 65.4% |
 Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 16+ Completions | 83%-488 | 7 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Tyler Shough | NO | 1+ Pass TD | 83%-488 | 8 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 26+ Pass Att | 82%-456 | 0 of last 10 | 66.3% |
 Woody Marks | HOU | 30+ Rush Yards | 79%-376 | 7 of last 10 | 62.5% |
 Malik Nabers | NYG | 40+ Rec Yards | 81%-426 | 6 of last 10 | 63.5% |
 Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 40+ Rush Yards | 82%-456 | 9 of last 10 | 64.4% |
 Ashton Jeanty | LV | 30+ Rush Yards | 82%-456 | 9 of last 10 | 64.2% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | 60+ Rush Yards | 80%-400 | 👀17 straight10/10 | 62.1% |
 George Pickens | DAL | 40+ Rec Yards | 81%-426 | 4 straight6/10 | 61.5% |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 150+ Pass Yards | 80%-400 | 7 of last 10 | 59.7% |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 175+ Pass Yards | 84%-525 | 8 of last 10 | 63.5% |
 Jordan Love | GB | 225+ Pass Yards | 78%-355 | 6 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Javonte Williams | DAL | 50+ Rush Yards | 76%-317 | 6 of last 10 | 55.5% |
 Jonathan Taylor |  IND | 60+ Rush Yards | 80%-400 | 7 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Dak Prescott | DAL | 225+ Pass Yards | 80%-400 | 4 straight8/10 | 54.0% |
 Keenan Allen | IND | 25+ Rec Yards | 76%-317 | 7 of last 10 | 44.2% |
70 props in this band.
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