65-74% props — Week 6
-186 to -28574 props
Every prop the market prices in this range, ranked. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
Prices as of 2026-10-15 22:22 UTC — markets move all day.
| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |  BUF | 25+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 6 of last 10 | 84.4% |
 Jakobi Meyers |  JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 👀14 straight10/10 | 78.5% |
 Kayshon Boutte |  HOU | 15+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 76.3% |
 Tre Tucker |  LV | 25+ Rec Yards | 72%-257 | 8 straight8/10 | 82.2% |
 Cooper Kupp |  SEA | 15+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 👀8 of last 10 | 74.2% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 20+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 7 of last 10 | 73.8% |
 RJ Harvey |  DEN | 10+ Rush Yards | 66%-194 | 👀8 of last 10 | 72.5% |
 Mike Washington Jr. | LV | 10+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 3 of last 5 | 72.5% |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA | 2+ Receptions | 68%-213 | 👀8 of last 10 | 72.5% |
 Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 200+ Pass Yards | 68%-213 | 👀8 of last 10 | 71.9% |
 C.J. Stroud | HOU | 225+ Pass Yards | 69%-223 | 6 of last 10 | 72.4% |
 Parker Washington | JAX | 40+ Rec Yards | 73%-270 | 8 of last 10 | 75.9% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 70+ Rush Yards | 72%-257 | 5 straight6/10 | 74.6% |
 Jonathan Taylor |  IND | Anytime TD | 70%-233 | 6 of last 10 | 71.9% |
 Denzel Boston |  CLE | 40+ Rec Yards | 67%-203 | 5 straight5/5 | 68.9% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 200+ Pass Yards | 74%-285 | 6 straight7/10 | 75.7% |
 James Cook III | BUF | 70+ Rush Yards | 72%-257 | 4 straight8/10 | 73.2% |
 Brock Purdy |  SF | 225+ Pass Yards | 66%-194 | 5 of last 10 | 66.6% |
 Brock Bowers | LV | 60+ Rec Yards | 71%-245 | 3 straight5/10 | 71.4% |
 Drake London |  ATL | 70+ Rec Yards | 69%-223 | 3 straight6/10 | 68.9% |
 Nico Collins | HOU | 50+ Rec Yards | 72%-257 | 👀12 straight10/10 | 71.6% |
 Deshaun Watson | CLE | 20+ Rush Yards | 70%-233 | 5 straight7/10 | 68.8% |
 Luther Burden III |  CHI | 40+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 3 straight7/10 | 63.5% |
 AJ Barner | SEA | 15+ Rec Yards | 71%-245 | 6 of last 10 | 69.2% |
 Bryce Young |  CAR | 200+ Pass Yards | 74%-285 | 5 straight6/10 | 71.5% |
| Parker Washington | JAX | 4+ Receptions | 70%-233 | 6 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Tony Pollard |  TEN | 40+ Rush Yards | 70%-233 | 👀4 straight9/10 | 66.9% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 70+ Rec Yards | 71%-245 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 67.8% |
 Christian McCaffrey | SF | Anytime TD | 72%-257 | 4 straight8/10 | 68.7% |
 Kenny Gainwell |  TB | 2+ Receptions | 66%-194 | 👀4 straight9/10 | 62.5% |
 Pat Freiermuth |  PIT | 3+ Receptions | 66%-194 | 👀8 of last 10 | 62.5% |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 2+ Pass TD | 72%-257 | 5 straight8/10 | 68.0% |
 Patrick Mahomes | KC | 200+ Pass Yards | 69%-223 | 3 straight7/10 | 64.5% |
 Sam Darnold | SEA | 200+ Pass Yards | 65%-186 | 4 of last 10 | 59.4% |
 Rome Odunze | CHI | 25+ Rec Yards | 73%-270 | 5 straight8/10 | 66.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 6+ Receptions | 70%-233 | 👀8 of last 10 | 62.5% |
| Nico Collins | HOU | 5+ Receptions | 70%-233 | 3 straight5/10 | 62.5% |
 Justin Herbert |  LAC | 1+ Pass TD | 65%-186 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 57.5% |
 Christian Watson |  GB | 60+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 6 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Jalon Daniels | TB | 150+ Pass Yards | 71%-245 | 1 of last 3 | 62.5% |
| Christian Watson | GB | 50+ Rec Yards | 74%-285 | 6 of last 10 | 65.4% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 50+ Rush Yards | 65%-186 | 👀3 straight8/10 | 56.5% |
 Bijan Robinson | ATL | 70+ Rush Yards | 71%-245 | 👀5 straight9/10 | 62.1% |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | Anytime TD | 69%-223 | 6 of last 10 | 59.6% |
 Garrett Wilson |  NYJ | 60+ Rec Yards | 65%-186 | 6 of last 10 | 55.4% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 3+ Receptions | 68%-213 | 7 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Colston Loveland | CHI | 25+ Rec Yards | 68%-213 | 7 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Chris Olave |  NO | 60+ Rec Yards | 71%-245 | 7 of last 10 | 60.4% |
 Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 50+ Rush Yards | 67%-203 | 5 straight5/10 | 55.5% |
 Jake Ferguson |  DAL | 15+ Rec Yards | 73%-270 | 6 of last 10 | 61.3% |
 Rachaad White |  WAS | 15+ Rush Yards | 68%-213 | 👀5 straight8/10 | 56.3% |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | 15+ Rec Yards | 66%-194 | 7 of last 10 | 53.8% |
 Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 50+ Rush Yards | 70%-233 | 4 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Malik Nabers |  NYG | 5+ Receptions | 70%-233 | 3 straight7/10 | 57.5% |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF | 25+ Rec Yards | 74%-285 | 5 of last 10 | 60.8% |
 Cam Ward | TEN | 175+ Pass Yards | 69%-223 | 5 of last 10 | 55.8% |
 Isaiah Likely | NYG | 40+ Rec Yards | 66%-194 | 4 of last 10 | 52.5% |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 25+ Rec Yards | 68%-213 | 7 of last 10 | 54.2% |
 Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 50+ Rush Yards | 66%-194 | 5 of last 10 | 51.9% |
 Matthew Golden | GB | 50+ Rec Yards | 68%-213 | 5 of last 10 | 53.5% |
 Seth McGowan | IND | 10+ Rush Yards | 68%-213 | 3 straight3/5 | 52.5% |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | 1+ Pass TD | 68%-213 | 2 of last 3 | 52.5% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | 70+ Rush Yards | 70%-233 | 👀3 straight9/10 | 53.8% |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA | 15+ Carries | 74%-285 | 4 of last 10 | 57.5% |
 Jordan Love | GB | 250+ Pass Yards | 66%-194 | 4 of last 10 | 48.1% |
 Bo Nix | DEN | 175+ Pass Yards | 65%-186 | 7 of last 10 | 46.8% |
 Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 16+ Carries | 71%-245 | 3 of last 10 | 52.5% |
| Malik Nabers | NYG | 50+ Rec Yards | 73%-270 | 6 of last 10 | 53.5% |
 George Pickens | DAL | 50+ Rec Yards | 71%-245 | 3 straight5/10 | 51.5% |
| Tanner McKee |  PHI | 1+ Pass TD | 68%-213 | 3 of last 6 | 47.5% |
 Dak Prescott | DAL | 250+ Pass Yards | 66%-194 | 4 straight7/10 | 44.4% |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND | 70+ Rush Yards | 70%-233 | 6 of last 10 | 48.2% |
 Ashton Jeanty | LV | 40+ Rush Yards | 72%-257 | 7 of last 10 | 49.2% |
 Daniel Jones | IND | 200+ Pass Yards | 73%-270 | 6 of last 10 | 34.8% |
74 props in this band.
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