85%+ favorites props — Week 6
-567 or steeper52 props
Every prop the market prices in this range, ranked. Projections and streaks describe our simulation and the past. They do not predict this week, and nothing here is a recommendation.
👀 = last-10 hit rate at this number runs 10+ points above the market price (minimum 8 games played). Descriptive, not advice.
Prices as of 2026-10-15 22:22 UTC — markets move all day.
| Player | Team | Prop | Market price | Streak | Our probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Allen |  BUF | 15+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 9 of last 10 | 93.2% |
 Drake Maye |  NE | 10+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 👀11 straight10/10 | 91.9% |
 George Holani |  SEA | 2+ Carries | 86%-614 | 8 straight8/10 | 92.5% |
 Kenneth Walker III |  KC | 50+ Rush Yards | 88%-733 | 7 straight8/10 | 86.8% |
 Parker Washington |  JAX | 25+ Rec Yards | 87%-669 | 9 of last 10 | 84.7% |
 Juwan Johnson |  NO | 15+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 👀25 straight10/10 | 81.9% |
 Brian Robinson |  ATL | 15+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 5 straight9/10 | 80.8% |
 Rome Odunze |  CHI | 15+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 5 straight8/10 | 80.6% |
 Brock Bowers |  LV | 40+ Rec Yards | 87%-669 | 3 straight7/10 | 82.5% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 175+ Pass Yards | 86%-614 | 6 straight8/10 | 80.7% |
 Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 150+ Pass Yards | 89%-809 | 👀22 straight10/10 | 82.8% |
 Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 50+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 78.8% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 4+ Receptions | 89%-809 | 👀10 straight10/10 | 82.5% |
 Kirk Cousins | LV | 1+ Pass TD | 89%-809 | 9 straight9/10 | 82.5% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 150+ Pass Yards | 92%-1150 | 6 straight8/10 | 84.7% |
 RJ Harvey |  DEN | 2+ Receptions | 85%-567 | 7 of last 10 | 77.5% |
 Brock Purdy |  SF | 175+ Pass Yards | 88%-733 | 5 straight8/10 | 80.2% |
 C.J. Stroud |  HOU | 175+ Pass Yards | 90%-900 | 8 of last 10 | 81.9% |
 Bijan Robinson | ATL | 50+ Rush Yards | 87%-669 | 5 straight9/10 | 78.8% |
 Jaylen Waddle | DEN | 2+ Receptions | 91%-1011 | 4 straight8/10 | 82.5% |
 Justin Herbert |  LAC | 125+ Pass Yards | 88%-733 | 9 of last 10 | 78.9% |
 Patrick Mahomes | KC | 1+ Pass TD | 87%-669 | 4 straight6/10 | 77.5% |
 Chris Olave | NO | 40+ Rec Yards | 85%-567 | 8 straight9/10 | 75.4% |
 Cam Skattebo |  NYG | 30+ Rush Yards | 87%-669 | 5 straight9/10 | 76.9% |
 Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 150+ Pass Yards | 91%-1011 | 10 straight10/10 | 80.1% |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 150+ Pass Yards | 91%-1011 | 84 straight10/10 | 80.1% |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 1+ Pass TD | 94%-1567 | 5 straight9/10 | 82.5% |
 Sam Darnold | SEA | 150+ Pass Yards | 88%-733 | 3 straight7/10 | 76.5% |
 CeeDee Lamb |  DAL | 40+ Rec Yards | 87%-669 | 8 of last 10 | 73.8% |
 Woody Marks | HOU | 25+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 7 of last 10 | 71.3% |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 14+ Completions | 88%-733 | 8 of last 10 | 73.8% |
 Geno Smith |  NYJ | 150+ Pass Yards | 88%-733 | 8 of last 10 | 73.8% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 1+ Pass TD | 87%-669 | 7 of last 10 | 72.5% |
 Aaron Rodgers |  PIT | 150+ Pass Yards | 91%-1011 | 10 straight10/10 | 76.2% |
| Drake Maye | NE | 150+ Pass Yards | 93%-1329 | 22 straight10/10 | 76.3% |
 Derrick Henry |  BAL | 50+ Rush Yards | 88%-733 | 👀17 straight10/10 | 71.3% |
 Tyler Shough | NO | 150+ Pass Yards | 90%-900 | 8 of last 10 | 73.0% |
| Drake Maye | NE | 175+ Pass Yards | 86%-614 | 8 straight9/10 | 68.4% |
 Jordan Love |  GB | 175+ Pass Yards | 92%-1150 | 3 straight7/10 | 74.0% |
 Javonte Williams | DAL | 40+ Rush Yards | 85%-567 | 3 straight8/10 | 66.9% |
| Jordan Love | GB | 1+ Pass TD | 91%-1011 | 5 straight8/10 | 72.5% |
 Jameis Winston | NYG | 150+ Pass Yards | 88%-733 | 6 of last 10 | 68.1% |
| Jordan Love | GB | 200+ Pass Yards | 87%-669 | 6 of last 10 | 66.2% |
| Drake Maye | NE | 1+ Pass TD | 90%-900 | 7 of last 10 | 67.5% |
 Dak Prescott | DAL | 1+ Pass TD | 90%-900 | 5 straight8/10 | 67.5% |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 200+ Pass Yards | 87%-669 | 4 straight8/10 | 63.4% |
 Bo Nix | DEN | 16+ Completions | 89%-809 | 5 straight9/10 | 62.5% |
 Daniel Jones |  IND | 17+ Completions | 89%-809 | 5 straight8/10 | 57.5% |
 Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 15+ Rec Yards | 91%-1011 | 3 straight9/10 | 56.3% |
| Daniel Jones | IND | 1+ Pass TD | 85%-567 | 7 of last 10 | 37.5% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 14+ Carries | 99%-9900 | 1 of last 10 | 50.0% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 20+ Carries | 99%-9900 | 0 of last 10 | 16.3% |
52 props in this band.
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