Our NRFI Record, Graded in Public
Saturday, September 26 •
Record by Window
| Window | Edge calls vs market | Directional accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 season | 406-40350.2% | 772-72851.5% |
| Last 30 days | 51-6942.5% | 126-13248.8% |
| Last 7 days | 10-952.6% | 32-2556.1% |
| Yesterday | 3-175.0% | 5-271.4% |
Engine History
We upgraded the simulation engine mid-season. V1 results are frozen exactly as they finished, not rewritten, so the two eras can be compared honestly.
| Engine | Dates | Edge calls vs market | Directional accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| V1 engine (frozen) | Thursday, March 26 – Monday, April 20 | 20-2643.5% | 120-10154.3% |
| V2 engine (live) | Tuesday, April 21 – Saturday, September 26 | 386-37750.6% | 652-62751.0% |
How Grading Works
Edge calls vs market: a game counts when lineups are confirmed and our scoreless-first-inning probability beats the market-implied probability by more than 0.1%. A win means the first inning finished scoreless; a loss means a run scored.
Directional accuracy: a game counts whenever our probability is above 50.1%. With 10,000 simulations per game the margin of error is about 0.5%, so 51%+ is a statistically meaningful call. At or below 50% we have no opinion and the game is excluded (885 such games this season).
Predictions lock at first pitch and results are graded automatically from official MLB scoring. Every qualifying game counts — there is no hand-picking which results make the record. Read how the projections are built for the full methodology.
See today’s board
Today’s scoreless-first-inning probability for every game, updated all morning.
Today’s NRFI picks →See the full day-by-day results archive →
For entertainment and informational purposes only. These are data-driven projections, not guarantees. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Please bet responsibly.